BUSE
First Busey Corporation
BUSE has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BUSE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BUSE's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BUSE.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BUSE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $26.46 | -8.4% |
| Current | 11x | $28.88 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $28.88 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $30.48 | +5.5% |
| Expensive | 14x | $37.62 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BUSE has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
BUSE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BUSE's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over BUSE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
BUSE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.64 | +0.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.63 | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.60 | +130% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.43 | +125% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.47 | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | -41% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.13 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | -46% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.98 | -9.2% |
BUSE earned $2.63 per share over the past year, up 127% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BUSE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BUSE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $193.5M | -1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $196.7M | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $196.2M | +57% |
| Q4 2025 | $200.2M | +71% |
| Q3 2025 | $196.3M | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | $198M | +140% |
| Q1 2025 | $125M | +65% |
| Q4 2024 | $116.8M | +51% |
BUSE's revenue is growing: $194M last quarter, down 1.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 37% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | +9.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 32% | +59 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +6.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | -14 points |
| Q1 2025 | -26% | -72 points |
| Q4 2024 | 32% | -11 points |
BUSE has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BUSE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $69.3M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $39.2M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.1M | +646% |
| Q4 2025 | $65.8M | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.5M | -7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.1M | +75% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.6M | -82% |
| Q4 2024 | $50.4M | +16% |
BUSE has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BUSE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -7.2% | -6.5M shares |
| 3 years | +49% | +27.4M shares |
| 5 years | +47% | +26.9M shares |
| Available history | +52% | +28.6M shares |
BUSE has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $60.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $63.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $66.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $29.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $13.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $21.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
BUSE spent $220M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
BUSE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -10.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
BUSE has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BUSE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.4 | Oversold |
BUSE's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 9 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BUSE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BUSE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 16% below |
| PE % | 35 | 63 | 28 pts below |
BUSE has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BUSE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.4 | 1.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $29.9 | 3.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.5 | 4.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.2 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $24.0 | 20% above |
BUSE has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 20% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
BUSE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.6 | $21.4 | -22% |
| 2021 | $21.4 | $27.0 | +26% |
| 2022 | $27.0 | $25.0 | -7.4% |
| 2023 | $25.0 | $24.8 | -0.7% |
| 2024 | $24.8 | $23.7 | -4.4% |
| 2025 | $23.7 | $24.4 | +2.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.4 | $28.9 | +18% |
BUSE has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.