BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
BTSG has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BTSG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
BTSG's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
BTSG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $71.45 | — |
| Cheap | 38x | $69.24 | -3.1% |
| Current | 39x | $71.45 | — |
| Fair | 53x | $98.23 | +37% |
| Expensive | 72x | $132 | +84% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BTSG has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BTSG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BTSG has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BTSG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.37 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.84 | +188% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +385% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.40 | +352% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.87 | +$0.96 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.64 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.34 | +$1.30 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.31 | +$1.34 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.09 | +$0.80 |
BTSG has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
BTSG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +29% |
BTSG has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3% | +0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.6% | -0.3 points |
BTSG's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH has the edge over BTSG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BTSG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $182.2M | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.9M | -40% |
| Q1 2026 | $101.4M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $193.9M | +157% |
| Q3 2025 | $92.2M | +1180% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.7M | +$63.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $84M | +$184.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $75.3M | -48% |
BTSG has the edge over UNH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
BTSG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -50K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +2.2M shares |
| 3 years | +29% | +49M shares |
| 5 years | +29% | +49M shares |
| Available history | +53% | +76.1M shares |
BTSG has 220M diluted shares, up 1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $60M |
| Q1 2026 | $60M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $325,000 |
| Q1 2024 | $325,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $325,000 |
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over BTSG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
BTSG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2x | High |
BTSG's net debt is about 2.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.3 years a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over BTSG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BTSG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.0 | Neutral |
BTSG's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
BTSG PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | BTSG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 26x | 50% above |
| PE % | 20 | 45 | 25 pts below |
BTSG is trading at 39x earnings, a 50% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over BTSG on valuation relative to its sector.
BTSG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.4 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $63.5 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $53.2 | 34% above |
| 100 week MA | $38.1 | 87% above |
BTSG has stronger trend alignment. BTSG is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus UNH above 4 of 5.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
BTSG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $11.0 | $17.0 | +55% |
| 2025 | $17.0 | $37.8 | +122% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $71.5 | +89% |
BTSG has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.