BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
BTSG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over BTSG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BTSG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
BTSG's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BTSG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $71.45 | — |
| Cheap | 38x | $69.24 | -3.1% |
| Current | 39x | $71.45 | — |
| Fair | 53x | $98.23 | +37% |
| Expensive | 72x | $132 | +84% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BTSG has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BTSG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for BTSG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
BTSG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.37 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.84 | +188% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +385% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.40 | +352% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.87 | +$0.96 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.64 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.34 | +$1.30 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.31 | +$1.34 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.09 | +$0.80 |
BTSG's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.84 over the past year, up 188% from the year before, and higher year over year for nine quarters in a row.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
BTSG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +29% |
BTSG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $4.2B last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3% | +0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.6% | -0.3 points |
BTSG's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over BTSG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over BTSG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BTSG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $182.2M | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.9M | -40% |
| Q1 2026 | $101.4M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $193.9M | +157% |
| Q3 2025 | $92.2M | +1180% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.7M | +$63.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $84M | +$184.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $75.3M | -48% |
BTSG generated $492M in free cash flow over the past year, up 78% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
BTSG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -50K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +2.2M shares |
| 3 years | +29% | +49M shares |
| 5 years | +29% | +49M shares |
| Available history | +53% | +76.1M shares |
BTSG has 220M diluted shares, up 1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $60M |
| Q1 2026 | $60M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $325,000 |
| Q1 2024 | $325,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $325,000 |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over BTSG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
BTSG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2x | High |
BTSG's net debt is about 2.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.3 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over BTSG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BTSG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.0 | Neutral |
BTSG's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
BTSG PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | BTSG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 26x | 50% above |
| PE % | 20 | 45 | 25 pts below |
BTSG has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
BTSG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.4 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $63.5 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $53.2 | 34% above |
| 100 week MA | $38.1 | 87% above |
LLY has stronger trend alignment. BTSG is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus LLY above 5 of 5.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
BTSG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $11.0 | $17.0 | +55% |
| 2025 | $17.0 | $37.8 | +122% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $71.5 | +89% |
BTSG has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.