BOW
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
BOW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over BOW overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BOW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BOW's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BOW.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BOW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $34.03 | — |
| Cheap | 16x | $28.41 | -17% |
| Fair | 18x | $32.73 | -3.8% |
| Current | 19x | $34.03 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $60.90 | +79% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BOW has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
BOW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BOW, with profitability holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over BOW on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
BOW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.30 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.78 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.85 | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.59 | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.56 | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.47 | +73% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.31 | +52% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.19 | +49% |
BOW's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.78 over the past year, up 14% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2024.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BOW on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
BOW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $171.8M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $163.9M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $155.7M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $151.7M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $143.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $133.3M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $122.7M | +35% |
| Q4 2024 | $119.3M | +44% |
BOW has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | -4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +4.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +8.3 points |
BOW's operating margin was 9.3% last quarter, down 4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over BOW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BOW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $191.3M | +69% |
| Q2 2026 | $92.5M | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.2M | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $58.6M | -3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.5M | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $46.5M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $60.9M | +0.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $118.4M | +36% |
BOW has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BOW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.1% | +699K shares |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +606K shares |
| 3 years | +8.6% | +2.7M shares |
BOW has 34M diluted shares, up 1.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over BOW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
BOW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
BOW has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BOW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.5 | Neutral |
BOW's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BOW PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BOW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 47% above |
| PE % | 55 | 27 | 28 pts above |
BOW is trading at 19x earnings, a 47% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over BOW on valuation relative to its sector.
BOW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.0 | 0.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.1 | 2.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.5 | 19% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.8 | 11% above |
BOW has stronger trend alignment. BOW is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus MS above 3 of 5.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
BOW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $25.7 | $34.5 | +34% |
| 2025 | $34.5 | $28.5 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.5 | $34.0 | +19% |
BOW has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.