BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
BFH has a slight edge over MS overall on the model score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BFH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BFH's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BFH.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BFH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.5x | $44.57 | -54% |
| Fair | 7x | $89.13 | -9% |
| Forward | 7.2x | $97.91 | — |
| Current | 7.7x | $97.91 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $150 | +54% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BFH's PE is in its fair range at 7.7x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.2x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over BFH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BFH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect BFH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over BFH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
BFH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.54 | +6.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.73 | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.87 | +120% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.26 | +120% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.89 | +98% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.85 | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.57 | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.49 | -62% |
BFH earned $12.73 per share over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BFH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BFH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $993M | +6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $975M | +5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $971M | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $929M | -1.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $970M | -2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $925M | -9% |
BFH's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.8% | +7.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.9% | -4.7 points |
BFH's operating margin was 21% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over BFH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over BFH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BFH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $601M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $533M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $487M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $568M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $605M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $526M | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $393M | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $479M | -22% |
BFH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BFH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.4% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -17% | -8.2M shares |
| 3 years | -22% | -10.8M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -10.7M shares |
| Available history | -23% | -11.6M shares |
BFH has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $76M |
| Q2 2026 | $243M |
| Q1 2026 | $153M |
| Q4 2025 | $123M |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q2 2025 | $47M |
| Q1 2025 | $103M |
| Q4 2024 | $44M |
BFH spent $595M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 154% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
BFH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
BFH has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BFH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.1 | Neutral |
BFH's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BFH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BFH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.7x | 13x | 41% below |
| PE % | 55 | 63 | 8 pts below |
BFH has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BFH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $103.8 | 5.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $90.1 | 8.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $73.8 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $56.4 | 74% above |
BFH has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 74% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
BFH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.5 | $57.4 | -35% |
| 2021 | $57.4 | $69.1 | +20% |
| 2022 | $69.1 | $37.3 | -46% |
| 2023 | $37.3 | $32.9 | -12% |
| 2024 | $32.9 | $61.9 | +88% |
| 2025 | $61.9 | $76.6 | +24% |
| 2026 YTD | $76.6 | $97.9 | +28% |
BFH has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.