BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.
BCSF trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over BCSF overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BCSF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BCSF's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BCSF.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BCSF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.3x | $7.02 | -37% |
| Forward | 8.1x | $11.06 | — |
| Fair | 8.5x | $8.15 | -26% |
| Expensive | 10x | $9.56 | -14% |
| Current | 12x | $11.06 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BCSF's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.1x, in its cheap range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over BCSF in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BCSF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect BCSF's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over BCSF on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
BCSF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.37 | +43% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.96 | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.99 | -40% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14 | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53 | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.44 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.66 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.85 | -2.6% |
BCSF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.96 over the past year, against $2.56 in mid-2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BCSF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BCSF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $30.4M | -40% |
| Q1 2022 | $46.3M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2021 | $40.7M | -22% |
| Q3 2021 | $40.4M | -41% |
| Q2 2021 | $50.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2020 | $52.5M | +27% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 40% for BCSF versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 57% | -28 points |
| Q1 2022 | 73% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2021 | 55% | -21 points |
| Q3 2021 | 58% | -18 points |
| Q2 2021 | 84% | +31 points |
| Q1 2021 | 72% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 76% | +24 points |
| Q3 2020 | 76% | N/A |
BCSF's operating margin was 57% last quarter, down 28 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BCSF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $137.9M | +1433% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.8M | +10858% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.6M | +$33.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $27.2M | +$47.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $9M | +$144.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $646K | -100% |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.3M | +$56.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$20M | -107% |
BCSF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BCSF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +306K shares |
| 5 years | +0.5% | +306K shares |
| Available history | +26% | +13.2M shares |
BCSF has 65M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over BCSF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
BCSF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 12.4x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 8.3x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 10.8x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 9.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 7.7x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 9.0x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 165.0x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 10.6x | High |
BCSF's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.7 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BCSF.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BCSF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.3 | Neutral |
BCSF's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BCSF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BCSF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 12% below |
| PE % | 93 | 63 | 30 pts above |
BCSF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BCSF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.8 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $11.7 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.6 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.2 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.7 | 25% below |
BCSF has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 25% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over BCSF on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BCSF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.2 | $12.4 | -38% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.6 | +25% |
| 2022 | $15.6 | $12.5 | -19% |
| 2023 | $12.5 | $15.1 | +20% |
| 2024 | $15.1 | $17.7 | +17% |
| 2025 | $17.7 | $13.9 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.9 | $11.1 | -21% |
BCSF has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 21% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over BCSF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.