BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.
BCSF's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 12x earnings, above its usual 8.5x. Analysts expect earnings to fall sharply, though they disagree widely on how much.
BCSF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BCSF's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BCSF.
BCSF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.3x | $7.02 | -37% |
| Forward | 8.1x | $11.06 | — |
| Fair | 8.5x | $8.15 | -26% |
| Expensive | 10x | $9.56 | -14% |
| Current | 12x | $11.06 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BCSF's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.1x, in its cheap range.
BCSF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect BCSF's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BCSF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.37 | +43% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.96 | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.99 | -40% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14 | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53 | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.44 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.66 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.85 | -2.6% |
BCSF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.96 over the past year, against $2.56 in mid-2021.
BCSF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $30.4M | -40% |
| Q1 2022 | $46.3M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2021 | $40.7M | -22% |
| Q3 2021 | $40.4M | -41% |
| Q2 2021 | $50.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2020 | $52.5M | +27% |
BCSF's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $30M last quarter, down 40% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 57% | -28 points |
| Q1 2022 | 73% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2021 | 55% | -21 points |
| Q3 2021 | 58% | -18 points |
| Q2 2021 | 84% | +31 points |
| Q1 2021 | 72% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 76% | +24 points |
| Q3 2020 | 76% | N/A |
BCSF's operating margin was 57% last quarter, down 28 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BCSF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $137.9M | +1433% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.8M | +10858% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.6M | +$33.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $27.2M | +$47.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $9M | +$144.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $646K | -100% |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.3M | +$56.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$20M | -107% |
BCSF's free cash flow was $262M over the past year, against −$18M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BCSF.
BCSF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +306K shares |
| 5 years | +0.5% | +306K shares |
| Available history | +26% | +13.2M shares |
BCSF has 65M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
BCSF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 12.4x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 8.3x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 10.8x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 9.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 7.7x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 9.0x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 165.0x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 10.6x | High |
BCSF's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.7 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BCSF.
BCSF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.3 | Neutral |
BCSF's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
BCSF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BCSF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 12% below |
| PE % | 93 | 63 | 30 pts above |
BCSF is trading at 12x earnings, a 12% discount to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BCSF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.8 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $11.7 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.6 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.2 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.7 | 25% below |
BCSF has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 25% below its 200-week average.
BCSF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.2 | $12.4 | -38% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.6 | +25% |
| 2022 | $15.6 | $12.5 | -19% |
| 2023 | $12.5 | $15.1 | +20% |
| 2024 | $15.1 | $17.7 | +17% |
| 2025 | $17.7 | $13.9 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.9 | $11.1 | -21% |
BCSF has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 21% so far in 2026.