BCSF

Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.

27
Fundamentals47/ 100
Valuation16/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential14/ 100

BCSF's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 12x earnings, above its usual 8.5x. Analysts expect earnings to fall sharply, though they disagree widely on how much.

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.

There isn't enough reported data to score COIN yet.

BCSF Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Healthy
N/A
N/A

BCSF's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BCSF.

COIN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Under pressure
N/A
N/A

COIN's revenue and profitability are currently under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like COIN.

BCSF PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.1x8.2x12x16x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.1x8.2x12x16x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap7.3x$7.02-37%
Forward8.1x$11.06โ€”
Fair8.5x$8.15-26%
Expensive10x$9.56-14%
Current12x$11.06โ€”

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BCSF's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.1x, in its cheap range.

COIN PE Valuation

COIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

BCSF Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong decline
Decline
Strongly weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect BCSF's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

COIN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Strongly improving
Moderate
Low

COIN has the edge over BCSF on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

BCSF Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+15%$12.73
Downside-14%$9.56

Calculated from the latest close: $11.06 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare BCSF and COIN's risk to reward.

COIN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $130.67 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare BCSF and COIN's risk to reward.

BCSF Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.90Q1 2024: $2.00Q2 2024: $2.00Q3 2024: $1.99Q4 2024: $1.85Q1 2025: $1.74Q2 2025: $1.66Q3 2025: $1.44Q4 2025: $1.53Q1 2026: $1.14Q2 2026: $0.99Q3 2026: $0.96Forward: $1.37
Q4 2023: $1.90Q1 2024: $2.00Q2 2024: $2.00Q3 2024: $1.99Q4 2024: $1.85Q1 2025: $1.74Q2 2025: $1.66Q3 2025: $1.44Q4 2025: $1.53Q1 2026: $1.14Q2 2026: $0.99Q3 2026: $0.96Forward: $1.37
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.37+43%
Q3 2026$0.96-33%
Q2 2026$0.99-40%
Q1 2026$1.14-34%
Q4 2025$1.53-17%
Q3 2025$1.44-28%
Q2 2025$1.66-17%
Q1 2025$1.74-13%
Q4 2024$1.85-2.6%

BCSF has the edge over COIN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

COIN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.37Q1 2024: $5.11Q2 2024: $5.67Q3 2024: $5.96Q4 2024: $9.48Q1 2025: $5.32Q2 2025: $10.32Q3 2025: $11.54Q4 2025: $4.45Q1 2026: $2.72Q2 2026: $-3.78Q3 2026: $-2.77Forward: $1.36
Q4 2023: $0.37Q1 2024: $5.11Q2 2024: $5.67Q3 2024: $5.96Q4 2024: $9.48Q1 2025: $5.32Q2 2025: $10.32Q3 2025: $11.54Q4 2025: $4.45Q1 2026: $2.72Q2 2026: $-3.78Q3 2026: $-2.77Forward: $1.36
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.36โ€”
Q3 2026-$2.77-124%
Q2 2026-$3.78-137%
Q1 2026$2.72-49%
Q4 2025$4.45-53%
Q3 2025$11.54+94%
Q2 2025$10.32+82%
Q1 2025$5.32+4.1%
Q4 2024$9.48+2462%

COIN has swung to a loss: it lost $2.77 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

BCSF Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2022$30.4M-40%
Q1 2022$46.3M+5.3%
Q4 2021$40.7M-22%
Q3 2021$40.4M-41%
Q2 2021$50.3M+23%
Q4 2020$52.5M+27%

COIN has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 40% for BCSF versus down 35% for COIN.

COIN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $954MQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $1.4BQ3 2024: $1.2BQ4 2024: $2.3BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $1.9BQ4 2025: $1.8BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
Q4 2023: $954MQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $1.4BQ3 2024: $1.2BQ4 2024: $2.3BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $1.9BQ4 2025: $1.8BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.2B-35%
Q2 2026$1.2B-19%
Q1 2026$1.4B-31%
Q4 2025$1.8B-22%
Q3 2025$1.9B+55%
Q2 2025$1.5B+3.3%
Q1 2025$2B+24%
Q4 2024$2.3B+138%

COIN's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $1.2B last quarter, down 35% from the same quarter a year ago.

BCSF Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $290MQ1 2024: โˆ’$64MQ2 2024: $192MQ3 2024: โˆ’$136MQ4 2024: โˆ’$20MQ1 2025: โˆ’$7MQ2 2025: $646,000Q3 2025: $9MQ4 2025: $27MQ1 2026: $27MQ2 2026: $71MQ3 2026: $138M
Q4 2023: $290MQ1 2024: โˆ’$64MQ2 2024: $192MQ3 2024: โˆ’$136MQ4 2024: โˆ’$20MQ1 2025: โˆ’$7MQ2 2025: $646,000Q3 2025: $9MQ4 2025: $27MQ1 2026: $27MQ2 2026: $71MQ3 2026: $138M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$137.9M+1433%
Q2 2026$70.8M+10858%
Q1 2026$26.6M+$33.9M
Q4 2025$27.2M+$47.1M
Q3 2025$9M+$144.8M
Q2 2025$646K-100%
Q1 2025-$7.3M+$56.4M
Q4 2024-$20M-107%

BCSF has the edge over COIN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

COIN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$5MQ1 2024: $411MQ2 2024: $484MQ3 2024: $697MQ4 2024: $965MQ1 2025: โˆ’$183MQ2 2025: $328MQ3 2025: โˆ’$785MQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $197MQ3 2026: $405M
Q4 2023: โˆ’$5MQ1 2024: $411MQ2 2024: $484MQ3 2024: $697MQ4 2024: $965MQ1 2025: โˆ’$183MQ2 2025: $328MQ3 2025: โˆ’$785MQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $197MQ3 2026: $405M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$405.5M+$1.2B
Q2 2026$197.3M-40%
Q1 2026$182.7M+$365.5M
Q4 2025$3.1B+218%
Q3 2025-$784.5M-213%
Q2 2025$328.5M-32%
Q1 2025-$182.7M-144%
Q4 2024$964.6M+$969.8M

COIN's free cash flow was $3.9B over the past year, more than ten times what it generated the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like COIN.

BCSF Total Shares

Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 65MQ2 2024: 65MQ3 2024: 65MQ4 2024: 65MQ1 2025: 65MQ2 2025: 65MQ3 2025: 65MQ4 2025: 65MQ1 2026: 65MQ2 2026: 65MQ3 2026: 65M
Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 65MQ2 2024: 65MQ3 2024: 65MQ4 2024: 65MQ1 2025: 65MQ2 2025: 65MQ3 2025: 65MQ4 2025: 65MQ1 2026: 65MQ2 2026: 65MQ3 2026: 65M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year0%--
3 years+0.5%+306K shares
5 years+0.5%+306K shares
Available history+26%+13.2M shares

BCSF has 65M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

COIN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 254MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 267MQ3 2024: 267MQ4 2024: 273MQ1 2025: 271MQ2 2025: 279MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 287MQ1 2026: 265MQ2 2026: 263MQ3 2026: 288M
Q4 2023: 254MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 267MQ3 2024: 267MQ4 2024: 273MQ1 2025: 271MQ2 2025: 279MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 287MQ1 2026: 265MQ2 2026: 263MQ3 2026: 288M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+9.3%+24.6M shares
1 year-1.4%-4M shares
3 years+21%+50.7M shares
5 years+15%+37.4M shares
Available history+330%+221M shares

COIN has the edge over BCSF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

BCSF Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 202212.4xHigh
Q1 20228.3xHigh
Q4 202110.8xHigh
Q3 20219.6xHigh
Q2 20217.7xHigh
Q1 20219.0xHigh
Q4 2020165.0xHigh
Q4 201910.6xHigh

BCSF's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.7 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BCSF.

COIN Net Leverage

Q1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.4xQ3 2024: -2.3xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.6xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -0.6xQ4 2025: -2.3xQ1 2026: -2.8xQ2 2026: -2.5xQ3 2026: -4.4x
Q1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.4xQ3 2024: -2.3xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.6xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -0.6xQ4 2025: -2.3xQ1 2026: -2.8xQ2 2026: -2.5xQ3 2026: -4.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-4.4xNet Cash
Q2 2026-2.5xNet Cash
Q1 2026-2.8xNet Cash
Q4 2025-2.3xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.6xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.6xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.6xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.8xNet Cash

COIN has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like COIN.

BCSF Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.0Neutral
Stochastic31.3Neutral

BCSF's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).

COIN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.3Neutral
Stochastic5.0Oversold

COIN's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

BCSF PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricBCSFSector medianRelative
PE12x13x12% below
PE %936330 pts above

BCSF is trading at 12x earnings, a 12% discount to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

COIN PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricCOINSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

COIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

BCSF Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$10.82.8% above
20 week MA$11.75.1% below
50 week MA$12.612% below
100 week MA$14.222% below
200 week MA$14.725% below

BCSF has the edge over COIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

COIN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$163.020% below
20 week MA$165.621% below
50 week MA$184.429% below
100 week MA$232.844% below
200 week MA$190.331% below

COIN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 31% below its 200-week average.

BCSF Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$20.2$12.4-38%
2021$12.4$15.6+25%
2022$15.6$12.5-19%
2023$12.5$15.1+20%
2024$15.1$17.7+17%
2025$17.7$13.9-21%
2026 YTD$13.9$11.1-21%

BCSF has the edge over COIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

COIN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$342.0$268.2-22%
2022$268.2$35.5-87%
2023$35.5$173.9+390%
2024$173.9$265.7+53%
2025$265.7$236.9-11%
2026 YTD$236.9$130.7-45%

COIN's yearly returns have swung widely, from +390% in 2023 to โˆ’87% in 2022. It's down 45% so far in 2026.

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