BCO
The Brink's Company
BCO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over BCO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
BCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
BCO's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $117 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $84.90 | -27% |
| Fair | 31x | $117 | +0.3% |
| Current | 31x | $117 | — |
| Expensive | 91x | $346 | +196% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BCO has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BCO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over BCO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
BCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.35 | +145% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.81 | -3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.32 | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.28 | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.69 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.94 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.73 | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.72 | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.63 | +94% |
BCO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
BCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +7.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +9.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +1.5% |
BCO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $1.4B last quarter, up 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.5% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.6% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +4.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.6% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.3% | +0.1 points |
BCO's operating margin was 9.5% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over BCO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.4M | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7M | -99% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$107.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $325.9M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.4M | +946% |
| Q2 2025 | $152.2M | +$275M |
| Q1 2025 | -$119.1M | -1118% |
| Q4 2024 | $307.2M | -9.6% |
BCO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $369M over the past year.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
BCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -5.6M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -8.8M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -9.6M shares |
BCO has 42M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $86M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $30.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $55.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $23.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $85.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $44.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $78.3M |
BCO spent $86M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 63% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over BCO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
BCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
BCO's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.4 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over BCO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.4 | Neutral |
BCO's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
BCO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | BCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 28% above |
| PE % | 49 | 58 | 9 pts below |
BCO is trading at 31x earnings, a 28% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over BCO on valuation relative to its sector.
BCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $107.3 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $110.0 | 6.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $111.7 | 4.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $104.4 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $94.0 | 24% above |
BCO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
BCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $91.1 | $70.8 | -22% |
| 2021 | $70.8 | $64.7 | -8.6% |
| 2022 | $64.7 | $54.1 | -16% |
| 2023 | $54.1 | $88.0 | +63% |
| 2024 | $88.0 | $91.7 | +4.3% |
| 2025 | $91.7 | $119.6 | +30% |
| 2026 YTD | $119.6 | $117.0 | -2.2% |
BCO has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 2.2% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over BCO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.