BAC

Bank of America Corporation

60
Fundamentals72/ 100
Valuation55/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential10/ 100

BAC has the edge over GBDC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

GBDC

Golub Capital BDC, Inc.

35
Fundamentals47/ 100
Valuation11/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential12/ 100

GBDC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

BAC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

BAC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BAC.

GBDC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Healthy
N/A
N/A

GBDC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GBDC.

BAC PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.6x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.6x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap9.4x$39.50-22%
Forward10x$50.51—
Current12x$50.51—
Fair13x$53.81+6.5%
Expensive15x$62.23+23%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BAC has the edge over GBDC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

GBDC PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x41x61x82x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x41x61x82x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap7.8x$5.08-59%
Forward9.8x$12.49—
Fair10x$6.58-47%
Expensive17x$10.74-14%
Current19x$12.49—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

GBDC's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.8x, in its fair range.

BAC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

BAC has the edge over GBDC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

GBDC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Decline
Decline
Strongly weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect GBDC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.

BAC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+25%$63.36
Downside-10%$45.36

Calculated from the latest close: $50.51 on Nov 12.

BAC has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GBDC, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

GBDC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+14%$14.18
Downside-12%$10.97

Calculated from the latest close: $12.49 on Nov 12.

GBDC trails BAC on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

BAC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.08Q1 2024: $2.90Q2 2024: $2.85Q3 2024: $2.76Q4 2024: $3.21Q1 2025: $3.35Q2 2025: $3.41Q3 2025: $3.66Q4 2025: $3.81Q1 2026: $4.02Q2 2026: $4.34Q3 2026: $4.19Forward: $4.92
Q4 2023: $3.08Q1 2024: $2.90Q2 2024: $2.85Q3 2024: $2.76Q4 2024: $3.21Q1 2025: $3.35Q2 2025: $3.41Q3 2025: $3.66Q4 2025: $3.81Q1 2026: $4.02Q2 2026: $4.34Q3 2026: $4.19Forward: $4.92
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$4.92+17%
Q3 2026$4.19+14%
Q2 2026$4.34+27%
Q1 2026$4.02+20%
Q4 2025$3.81+19%
Q3 2025$3.66+33%
Q2 2025$3.41+20%
Q1 2025$3.35+16%
Q4 2024$3.21+4.2%

BAC has the edge over GBDC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GBDC Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $1.52Q4 2023: $1.82Q1 2024: $2.03Q2 2024: $1.65Q3 2024: $1.36Q4 2024: $1.33Q1 2025: $1.08Q2 2025: $1.37Q3 2025: $1.42Q4 2025: $1.25Q1 2026: $0.77Q2 2026: $0.65Forward: $1.27
Q3 2023: $1.52Q4 2023: $1.82Q1 2024: $2.03Q2 2024: $1.65Q3 2024: $1.36Q4 2024: $1.33Q1 2025: $1.08Q2 2025: $1.37Q3 2025: $1.42Q4 2025: $1.25Q1 2026: $0.77Q2 2026: $0.65Forward: $1.27
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.27+96%
Q2 2026$0.65-53%
Q1 2026$0.77-29%
Q4 2025$1.25-6%
Q3 2025$1.42+4.4%
Q2 2025$1.37-17%
Q1 2025$1.08-47%
Q4 2024$1.33-27%
Q3 2024$1.36-11%

GBDC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.65 over the past year, against $2.61 in early 2021.

BAC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $22BQ1 2024: $25.8BQ2 2024: $25.4BQ3 2024: $25.3BQ4 2024: $25.3BQ1 2025: $27.4BQ2 2025: $26.5BQ3 2025: $28.1BQ4 2025: $31.2BQ1 2026: $30.3BQ2 2026: $31.6BQ3 2026: $30B
Q4 2023: $22BQ1 2024: $25.8BQ2 2024: $25.4BQ3 2024: $25.3BQ4 2024: $25.3BQ1 2025: $27.4BQ2 2025: $26.5BQ3 2025: $28.1BQ4 2025: $31.2BQ1 2026: $30.3BQ2 2026: $31.6BQ3 2026: $30B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$30B+6.7%
Q2 2026$31.6B+19%
Q1 2026$30.3B+11%
Q4 2025$31.2B+23%
Q3 2025$28.1B+11%
Q2 2025$26.5B+4.3%
Q1 2025$27.4B+6%
Q4 2024$25.3B+15%

BAC has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 6.7% for BAC versus down 18% for GBDC.

GBDC Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: --Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --
Q3 2023: --Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2022$73.9M-18%
Q2 2022$57.6M-43%
Q1 2022$109.5M-1.5%
Q4 2021$105.4M-6.1%
Q3 2021$90.5M-19%
Q2 2021$101.3M-38%
Q4 2020$112.3M+56%

GBDC's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $74M last quarter, down 18% from the same quarter a year ago.

BAC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $32.7BQ1 2024: −$15.5BQ2 2024: $18.1BQ3 2024: −$37.3BQ4 2024: $25.9BQ1 2025: −$2.2BQ2 2025: −$9.1BQ3 2025: $46.9BQ4 2025: −$22.9BQ1 2026: $41.8BQ2 2026: $29BQ3 2026: −$6.5B
Q4 2023: $32.7BQ1 2024: −$15.5BQ2 2024: $18.1BQ3 2024: −$37.3BQ4 2024: $25.9BQ1 2025: −$2.2BQ2 2025: −$9.1BQ3 2025: $46.9BQ4 2025: −$22.9BQ1 2026: $41.8BQ2 2026: $29BQ3 2026: −$6.5B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$6.5B-114%
Q2 2026$29B+$38.2B
Q1 2026$41.8B+$44B
Q4 2025-$22.9B-189%
Q3 2025$46.9B+$84.2B
Q2 2025-$9.1B-150%
Q1 2025-$2.2B+$13.4B
Q4 2024$25.9B-21%

BAC's free cash flow was $41.4B over the past year, down 33% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BAC.

GBDC Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $64MQ4 2023: $164MQ1 2024: $149MQ2 2024: $231MQ3 2024: −$200MQ4 2024: −$375MQ1 2025: $195MQ2 2025: −$200MQ3 2025: $266MQ4 2025: $212MQ1 2026: $249MQ2 2026: $193M
Q3 2023: $64MQ4 2023: $164MQ1 2024: $149MQ2 2024: $231MQ3 2024: −$200MQ4 2024: −$375MQ1 2025: $195MQ2 2025: −$200MQ3 2025: $266MQ4 2025: $212MQ1 2026: $249MQ2 2026: $193M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$192.7M+$393.2M
Q1 2026$248.8M+27%
Q4 2025$212M+$586.7M
Q3 2025$266.1M+$466.1M
Q2 2025-$200.4M-187%
Q1 2025$195.4M+31%
Q4 2024-$374.7M-329%
Q3 2024-$200M-412%

GBDC has the edge over BAC on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

BAC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 8.1BQ1 2024: 8BQ2 2024: 8BQ3 2024: 7.9BQ4 2024: 7.9BQ1 2025: 7.8BQ2 2025: 7.7BQ3 2025: 7.6BQ4 2025: 7.7BQ1 2026: 7.4BQ2 2026: 7.3BQ3 2026: 7.2B
Q4 2023: 8.1BQ1 2024: 8BQ2 2024: 8BQ3 2024: 7.9BQ4 2024: 7.9BQ1 2025: 7.8BQ2 2025: 7.7BQ3 2025: 7.6BQ4 2025: 7.7BQ1 2026: 7.4BQ2 2026: 7.3BQ3 2026: 7.2B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1%-72M shares
1 year-5.3%-405M shares
3 years-11%-854M shares
5 years-15%-1.3B shares
Available history-24%-2.2B shares

BAC has the edge over GBDC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

GBDC Total Shares

Q3 2023: 170MQ4 2023: 170MQ1 2024: 171MQ2 2024: 200MQ4 2024: 264MQ1 2025: 266MQ2 2025: 267MQ3 2025: 266MQ4 2025: 264MQ1 2026: 263MQ2 2026: 260M
Q3 2023: 170MQ4 2023: 170MQ1 2024: 171MQ2 2024: 200MQ4 2024: 264MQ1 2025: 266MQ2 2025: 267MQ3 2025: 266MQ4 2025: 264MQ1 2026: 263MQ2 2026: 260M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.8%-2.2M shares
1 year-2.4%-6.4M shares
3 years+52%+89.6M shares
5 years+56%+93.2M shares
Available history+241%+184M shares

GBDC has 260M diluted shares, down 2.4% from a year ago, with $83M in buybacks over the past year.

BAC Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 9.5xQ1 2024: 9.5xQ2 2024: 9.4xQ3 2024: 9.9xQ4 2024: 9.0xQ1 2025: 8.6xQ2 2025: 8.8xQ3 2025: 8.3xQ4 2025: 7.7xQ1 2026: 7.1xQ2 2026: 6.7xQ3 2026: 6.4x
Q4 2023: 9.5xQ1 2024: 9.5xQ2 2024: 9.4xQ3 2024: 9.9xQ4 2024: 9.0xQ1 2025: 8.6xQ2 2025: 8.8xQ3 2025: 8.3xQ4 2025: 7.7xQ1 2026: 7.1xQ2 2026: 6.7xQ3 2026: 6.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20266.4xHigh
Q2 20266.7xHigh
Q1 20267.1xHigh
Q4 20257.7xHigh
Q3 20258.3xHigh
Q2 20258.8xHigh
Q1 20258.6xHigh
Q4 20249.0xHigh

BAC's net debt is about 6.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.3 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BAC.

GBDC Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 202212.1xHigh
Q2 202210.9xHigh
Q1 20228.8xHigh
Q4 20218.1xHigh
Q3 20217.0xHigh
Q2 20215.4xHigh
Q1 20214.7xHigh
Q4 202022.4xHigh

GBDC's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.0 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GBDC.

BAC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI37.1Neutral
Stochastic4.9Oversold

BAC's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

GBDC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.4Neutral
Stochastic49.9Neutral

GBDC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).

BAC PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricBACSector medianRelative
PE12x13x7.5% below
PE %406323 pts below

BAC has the edge over GBDC on valuation relative to its sector.

GBDC PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricGBDCSector medianRelative
PE19x13x48% above
PE %886325 pts above

GBDC is trading at 19x earnings, a 48% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

BAC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$52.13% below
20 week MA$57.813% below
50 week MA$54.77.7% below
100 week MA$50.50% below
200 week MA$42.519% above

BAC has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 19% above its 200-week average.

GBDC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$12.40.6% above
20 week MA$12.72% below
50 week MA$12.93.3% below
100 week MA$13.89.6% below
200 week MA$14.313% below

GBDC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 13% below its 200-week average.

BAC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$35.4$30.0-15%
2021$30.0$44.4+48%
2022$44.4$32.5-27%
2023$32.5$33.7+3.7%
2024$33.7$44.3+32%
2025$44.3$56.2+27%
2026 YTD$56.2$50.5-10%

BAC has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 10% so far in 2026.

GBDC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$18.5$13.8-25%
2021$13.8$15.3+11%
2022$15.3$13.2-13%
2023$13.2$15.1+14%
2024$15.1$15.3+1%
2025$15.3$13.6-11%
2026 YTD$13.6$12.5-7.8%

GBDC has the edge over BAC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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