BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
ZUMZ
Zumiez Inc.
ZUMZ offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
ZUMZ Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ZUMZ's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ZUMZ PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.1x | $5.19 | -63% |
| Fair | 14x | $8.64 | -39% |
| Current | 22x | $14.09 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $16.27 | +15% |
| Forward | 34x | $14.09 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ZUMZ's PE is in its expensive range at 22x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 34x.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
ZUMZ Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ZUMZ's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
ZUMZ Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.42 | -35% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.64 | +$0.68 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.75 | +$0.77 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.78 | +$0.87 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45 | +$3.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.04 | +$2.71 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.02 | +$3.13 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.09 | +$3.16 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.57 | -$1.63 |
ZUMZ has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ZUMZ Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $209M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $193.3M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $291.3M | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $239.1M | +7.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $214.3M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $184.3M | +3.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $279.2M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $222.5M | +2.8% |
ZUMZ's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $209M last quarter, down 2.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -7.9% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9% | +3.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | +19 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1% | +1.1 points |
ZUMZ's operating margin was −0.6% last quarter, down 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
ZUMZ Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.4M | -125% |
| Q2 2026 | -$29.8M | -$5.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $54.1M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1M | +$25.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $9.5M | +$10.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$24.3M | -$3.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $49.7M | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | -$22.3M | -$19.3M |
ZUMZ has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
ZUMZ Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.1% | -497K shares |
| 1 year | -5.9% | -990K shares |
| 3 years | -19% | -3.6M shares |
| 5 years | -39% | -9.9M shares |
| Available history | -39% | -9.9M shares |
ZUMZ has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23M |
| Q2 2026 | $6M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $25.2M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $5.6M |
ZUMZ spent $35M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 9.8% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ZUMZ Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -9.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
ZUMZ has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
ZUMZ Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.2 | Oversold |
ZUMZ's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ on valuation relative to its sector.
ZUMZ PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ZUMZ | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 22% above |
| PE % | 76 | 47 | 29 pts above |
ZUMZ is trading at 22x earnings, a 22% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
ZUMZ Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.1 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $20.9 | 33% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.6 | 24% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.0 | 26% below |
ZUMZ has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over ZUMZ on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ZUMZ Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $32.7 | $36.0 | +10% |
| 2021 | $36.0 | $45.9 | +27% |
| 2022 | $45.9 | $21.0 | -54% |
| 2023 | $21.0 | $20.3 | -3.2% |
| 2024 | $20.3 | $19.5 | -4.3% |
| 2025 | $19.5 | $27.2 | +40% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.2 | $14.1 | -48% |
ZUMZ has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 48% so far in 2026.