BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
YUM
Yum! Brands, Inc.
YUM has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
YUM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
YUM's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
YUM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 13x | $159 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $291 | +83% |
| Forward | 25x | $159 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $332 | +108% |
| Expensive | 30x | $377 | +136% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
YUM has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over YUM on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
YUM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect YUM's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over YUM on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
YUM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.47 | -48% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.46 | +143% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.95 | +57% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.20 | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.55 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.13 | -4.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.07 | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.02 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.22 | -6.6% |
YUM earned $12.46 per share over the past year, up 143% from the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
YUM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.4B | +16% |
YUM has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 113% | +79 points |
| Q2 2026 | 30% | -2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | +1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 34% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 28% | -2.1 points |
YUM has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
YUM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $388M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $407M | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $341M | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $482M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $449M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $375M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $333M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $407M | +19% |
YUM has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
YUM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -2.5% | -7M shares |
| 3 years | -4.2% | -12M shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -28M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -39M shares |
YUM has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $528M |
| Q2 2026 | $489M |
| Q1 2026 | $185M |
| Q4 2025 | $178M |
| Q3 2025 | $36M |
| Q2 2025 | $109M |
| Q1 2025 | $229M |
| Q4 2024 | $114M |
YUM spent $1.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 183% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over YUM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
YUM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 4.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2x | High |
YUM's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.9 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
YUM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.4 | Neutral |
YUM's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
YUM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | YUM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 18x | 29% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
YUM has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
YUM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $149.5 | 6.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $150.5 | 5.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $153.8 | 3.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $149.6 | 6.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $141.1 | 13% above |
YUM has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
YUM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.9 | $107.5 | +5.5% |
| 2021 | $107.5 | $135.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $135.3 | $128.9 | -4.8% |
| 2023 | $128.9 | $130.7 | +1.4% |
| 2024 | $130.7 | $135.2 | +3.5% |
| 2025 | $135.2 | $153.2 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $153.2 | $159.3 | +4% |
YUM has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.