BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
W
Wayfair Inc.
W has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
W Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
W's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
W PE Valuation
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
W Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for W, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over W on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
W Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.81 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.26 | +$1.29 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.47 | -$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.35 | +$0.49 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.44 | +$1.57 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.55 | +$1.89 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.39 | +$2.85 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.84 | +$2.47 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.01 | +$2.46 |
W is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.26 per share over the past year, against $12.72 at its worst in early 2023.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over W on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
W Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B | +9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | 0% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +0.2% |
W has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | +6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.5% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8% | +1.8 points |
W's operating margin was 3.1% last quarter, up 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
W Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $168M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $334M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | -$77M | +$24M |
| Q4 2025 | $177M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $128M | +300% |
| Q2 2025 | $260M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | -$101M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $142M | +28% |
W has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over W on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
W Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4.5% | +6M shares |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +8M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +22M shares |
| 5 years | +33% | +33.9M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +45.8M shares |
W has 138M diluted shares, up 6.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $75M |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over W on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
W Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 12.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 33.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 103.9x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 5.9x | High |
W's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 13 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
W Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.1 | Neutral |
W's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
W PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | W | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
W Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.0 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $101.0 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.2 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $74.9 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $63.9 | 74% above |
W has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
W Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.1 | $252.8 | +175% |
| 2021 | $252.8 | $204.4 | -19% |
| 2022 | $204.4 | $33.6 | -84% |
| 2023 | $33.6 | $61.7 | +84% |
| 2024 | $61.7 | $43.8 | -29% |
| 2025 | $43.8 | $102.2 | +134% |
| 2026 YTD | $102.2 | $111.5 | +9.1% |
W has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.