BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over VAC overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
VAC offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
VAC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
VAC's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
VAC PE Valuation
VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VAC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VAC, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over VAC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
VAC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.67 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$7.00 | -257% |
| Q2 2026 | -$9.31 | -240% |
| Q1 2026 | -$9.66 | -265% |
| Q4 2025 | -$8.84 | -258% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.45 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.64 | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.85 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.61 | -11% |
VAC has swung to a loss: it lost $7.00 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VAC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +11% |
VAC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.4B last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +8.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +3.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -34% | -42 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6% | -8.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -0.8 points |
VAC has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
VAC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $66M | +$134M |
| Q1 2026 | -$12M | -$6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | -107% |
| Q3 2025 | $51M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | -$68M | -500% |
| Q1 2025 | -$6M | +$7M |
| Q4 2024 | $86M | +51% |
VAC has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over VAC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
VAC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +400K shares |
| 1 year | +11% | +3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -4.7M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -5.1M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -5.9M shares |
VAC has 39M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $25M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $36M |
| Q4 2024 | $11M |
VAC spent $25M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 47% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over VAC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VAC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
VAC's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.0 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
VAC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.9 | Neutral |
VAC's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
VAC PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | VAC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
VAC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $109.2 | 5.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $107.2 | 7.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $84.4 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $77.9 | 48% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.2 | 28% above |
VAC has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
VAC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $130.6 | $134.1 | +2.7% |
| 2021 | $134.1 | $166.5 | +24% |
| 2022 | $166.5 | $134.1 | -19% |
| 2023 | $134.1 | $84.9 | -37% |
| 2024 | $84.9 | $90.6 | +6.8% |
| 2025 | $90.6 | $58.6 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $58.6 | $115.0 | +96% |
VAC has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.