BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
ULTA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ULTA's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ULTA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $448 | -31% |
| Fair | 20x | $561 | -14% |
| Forward | 21x | $651 | — |
| Current | 24x | $651 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $809 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ULTA has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ULTA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ULTA, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
ULTA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $31.27 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $27.45 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.68 | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.64 | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $26.05 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.05 | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.57 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.34 | -2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.97 | +1.3% |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ULTA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.2B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +1.7% |
ULTA's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $3B last quarter, up 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -0.6 points |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
ULTA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.4M | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.6M | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $989M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | -$81.6M | +$89.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $19.6M | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | $141M | +106% |
| Q1 2025 | $962.6M | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$171.1M | +$6M |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
ULTA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -902K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -6.8M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -12M shares |
| Available history | -25% | -14.7M shares |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $247.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $545.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $197.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $224.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $109.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $369.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $237.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $263.6M |
ULTA spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 24% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ULTA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
ULTA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.9 | Overbought |
ULTA's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over ULTA on valuation relative to its sector.
ULTA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ULTA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 18x | 32% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
ULTA is trading at 24x earnings, a 32% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
ULTA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $601.6 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $548.9 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $565.1 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $508.9 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $475.4 | 37% above |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
ULTA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $253.2 | $264.6 | +4.5% |
| 2021 | $264.6 | $392.4 | +48% |
| 2022 | $392.4 | $456.4 | +16% |
| 2023 | $456.4 | $490.0 | +7.4% |
| 2024 | $490.0 | $442.2 | -9.8% |
| 2025 | $442.2 | $607.5 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $607.5 | $651.0 | +7.2% |
ULTA has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.