BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
TSCO has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TSCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
TSCO's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
TSCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 11x | $36.63 | — |
| Forward | 18x | $36.63 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $70.96 | +94% |
| Fair | 24x | $85.13 | +132% |
| Expensive | 27x | $94.49 | +158% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSCO has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over TSCO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
TSCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TSCO's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
TSCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.02 | -42% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.49 | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.55 | +74% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.67 | +83% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.70 | +81% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.08 | +1% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.01 | -2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | +1% |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over TSCO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TSCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.7B | +7.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.8B | +3.1% |
TSCO's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $3.9B last quarter, up 5.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.9% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.4% | -0.7 points |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
TSCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13.6M | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $328.9M | -43% |
| Q1 2026 | -$111.5M | -248% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.3M | -78% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.3M | +$132.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $575.4M | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $75.5M | -25% |
| Q4 2024 | $271.2M | +61% |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TSCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -2% | -10.6M shares |
| 3 years | -4.6% | -25.2M shares |
| 5 years | -9.5% | -54.5M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -82.2M shares |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $89.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $135.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $118M |
| Q4 2025 | $117.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $74M |
| Q2 2025 | $72.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $95.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $154M |
TSCO spent $460M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 16% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over TSCO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TSCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.8x | Very low |
TSCO's net debt is about 1.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
TSCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.3 | Neutral |
TSCO's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
TSCO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 18x | 42% below |
| PE % | 8 | 47 | 39 pts below |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
TSCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.8 | 8.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.3 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $39.8 | 7.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $47.3 | 23% below |
| 200 week MA | $47.9 | 23% below |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
TSCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.5 | $29.4 | +59% |
| 2021 | $29.4 | $45.7 | +55% |
| 2022 | $45.7 | $43.4 | -4.9% |
| 2023 | $43.4 | $43.0 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $43.0 | $54.6 | +27% |
| 2025 | $54.6 | $51.4 | -5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $51.4 | $36.6 | -29% |
TSCO has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.