BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over TNL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TNL
Travel + Leisure Co.
TNL offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TNL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
TNL's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over TNL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TNL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.1x | $30.55 | -61% |
| Forward | 9.2x | $78.24 | — |
| Fair | 9.6x | $35.89 | -54% |
| Expensive | 19x | $72.44 | -7.4% |
| Current | 21x | $78.24 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TNL's PE is in its expensive range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.2x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over TNL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
TNL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TNL, but weaker profitability.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over TNL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TNL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.52 | +127% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.75 | -38% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.69 | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.59 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.44 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.06 | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.78 | -2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.97 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.82 | +10% |
TNL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.75 over the past year, against $6.06 in late 2025.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over TNL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TNL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $961M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $934M | +2% |
| Q4 2024 | $971M | +3.7% |
TNL's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 5.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | +0.8 points |
TNL has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
TNL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $111M | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $19M | -81% |
| Q4 2025 | $92M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $136M | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $195M | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $100M | +233% |
| Q4 2024 | $75M | -38% |
TNL has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TNL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -800K shares |
| 1 year | -5.3% | -3.5M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -11M shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -24.8M shares |
| Available history | -30% | -27.2M shares |
TNL has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $75M |
| Q2 2026 | $88M |
| Q1 2026 | $87M |
| Q4 2025 | $90M |
| Q3 2025 | $71M |
| Q2 2025 | $70M |
| Q1 2025 | $70M |
| Q4 2024 | $72M |
TNL spent $340M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over TNL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TNL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 6.4x | High |
TNL's net debt is about 8.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.9 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
TNL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.9 | Neutral |
TNL's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
TNL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TNL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 16% above |
| PE % | 88 | 47 | 41 pts above |
TNL has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
TNL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $68.0 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $70.5 | 11% above |
| 50 week MA | $70.9 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $62.8 | 25% above |
| 200 week MA | $52.5 | 49% above |
TNL has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
TNL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.9 | $43.0 | -17% |
| 2021 | $43.0 | $53.9 | +25% |
| 2022 | $53.9 | $36.1 | -33% |
| 2023 | $36.1 | $39.1 | +8.2% |
| 2024 | $39.1 | $50.6 | +29% |
| 2025 | $50.6 | $72.5 | +44% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.5 | $78.2 | +7.9% |
TNL has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.