BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over TLYS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
TLYS
Tilly's, Inc.
TLYS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TLYS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
TLYS's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over TLYS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TLYS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.2x | $0.31 | -93% |
| Fair | 11x | $0.64 | -85% |
| Forward | 23x | $4.29 | — |
| Expensive | 40x | $2.38 | -45% |
| Current | 75x | $4.29 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TLYS's PE is in its expensive range at 75x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 23x next year's earnings.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over TLYS on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
TLYS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect TLYS to return to profit, with revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
TLYS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.18 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.06 | +$1.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.11 | +$1.51 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.58 | +$0.96 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.13 | +$0.64 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.51 | -$0.14 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.62 | -$0.21 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.54 | -$0.38 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.77 | -$1.30 |
TLYS has returned to profit: it earned $0.06 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over TLYS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over TLYS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TLYS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $163.5M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $124.7M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $155.1M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $139.6M | -2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $151.3M | -7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $107.6M | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $147.3M | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $143.4M | -14% |
TLYS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $164M last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | -6.5% | +15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7% | +11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.4% | +8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -21% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -9.6% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | -9.8% | -8.3 points |
TLYS's operating margin was 5% last quarter, up 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
TLYS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.9M | +56% |
| Q2 2026 | -$5.3M | +$4.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.3M | +$12.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$11.7M | +$13.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $13.4M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | -$9.6M | +$18.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.4M | -1829% |
| Q4 2024 | -$25.1M | -$14.3M |
TLYS has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over TLYS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TLYS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.5% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +3% | +893K shares |
| 3 years | +4.5% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | +0.1% | +46K shares |
| Available history | +4.7% | +1.4M shares |
TLYS has 31M diluted shares, up 3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $1.9M |
| Q3 2022 | $838,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $8.2M |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TLYS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -6.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2023 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2021 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2021 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2021 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2020 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
TLYS has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
TLYS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.4 | Neutral |
TLYS's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over TLYS on valuation relative to its sector.
TLYS PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TLYS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 75x | 18x | 316% above |
| PE % | 89 | 47 | 42 pts above |
TLYS is trading at 75x earnings, a 316% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
TLYS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.34 | 1.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.18 | 2.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $3.52 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $2.86 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $4.83 | 11% below |
TLYS has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
TLYS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $12.1 | $8.14 | -33% |
| 2021 | $8.14 | $15.3 | +88% |
| 2022 | $15.3 | $8.86 | -42% |
| 2023 | $8.86 | $7.54 | -15% |
| 2024 | $7.54 | $3.90 | -48% |
| 2025 | $3.90 | $1.83 | -53% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.83 | $4.29 | +134% |
TLYS has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.