BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
SHOO has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
SHOO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
SHOO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
SHOO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $28.23 | -31% |
| Current | 17x | $41.18 | — |
| Forward | 17x | $41.18 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $44.77 | +8.7% |
| Expensive | 46x | $113 | +174% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SHOO has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SHOO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SHOO, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over SHOO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SHOO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.48 | +2.1% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.43 | +208% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.00 | +57% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.06 | -54% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63 | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.79 | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.27 | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.32 | -4.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.35 | +2.2% |
SHOO earned $2.43 per share over the past year, about three times what it earned the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SHOO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $772.6M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $665.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $653.1M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $753.7M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $667.9M | +6.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $559M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $553.5M | +0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $582.3M | +12% |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.5% | +4.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9% | +13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.8% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7% | -7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.2% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.7% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8% | +0.3 points |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
SHOO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$10.9M | -227% |
| Q2 2026 | $196.1M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | -$61.2M | -$32.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $80.8M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.6M | +$15.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $58.8M | -44% |
| Q1 2025 | -$28.7M | -$9M |
| Q4 2024 | $94.6M | -35% |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over SHOO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
SHOO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +413K shares |
| 1 year | +2% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | -2% | -1.5M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -8.7M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -11.1M shares |
SHOO has 73M diluted shares, up 2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $343,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $985,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $7.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $169,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $428,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.6M |
SHOO spent $14M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SHOO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
SHOO's net debt is about 1.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
SHOO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.1 | Neutral |
SHOO's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
SHOO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SHOO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 18x | 5.9% below |
| PE % | 37 | 47 | 10 pts below |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
SHOO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.5 | 5.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 6.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.7 | 1.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.3 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $37.6 | 9.4% above |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
SHOO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.7 | $34.6 | -19% |
| 2021 | $34.6 | $44.4 | +28% |
| 2022 | $44.4 | $32.5 | -27% |
| 2023 | $32.5 | $42.0 | +29% |
| 2024 | $42.0 | $42.3 | +0.8% |
| 2025 | $42.3 | $43.0 | +1.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.0 | $41.2 | -4.3% |
SHOO has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.