BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
REAL
The RealReal, Inc.
REAL has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
REAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
REAL's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
REAL PE Valuation
REAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
REAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for REAL, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over REAL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
REAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.27 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.65 | +$0.68 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.10 | -$0.09 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.00 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.07 | +$0.17 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.33 | -$0.47 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.01 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.08 | +$0.04 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.24 | +$0.41 |
REAL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.65 per share over the past year, against $2.61 at its worst in late 2021.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over REAL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
REAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $206.1M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $192.6M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $189.7M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $194.1M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $173.6M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $165.2M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $160M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $164M | +14% |
REAL has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7% | +5.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | -1.2% | +4.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +6.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2% | +6.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4.3% | +5.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6% | +7 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8% | +4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.1% | +12 points |
REAL's operating margin was 0.7% last quarter, up 5.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
REAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.3M | -9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.4M | +$9M |
| Q1 2026 | -$24.1M | +$8.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8M | +100% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.9M | +235% |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.4M | -$1.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$33M | -$27.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.9M | +233% |
REAL has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over REAL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
REAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +5.9% | +7.1M shares |
| 1 year | +9.7% | +11.4M shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +25.5M shares |
| 5 years | +40% | +36.3M shares |
| Available history | +48% | +41.6M shares |
REAL has 128M diluted shares, up 9.7% from a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
REAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
REAL's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
REAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.6 | Neutral |
REAL's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
REAL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
REAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
REAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.0 | 30% above |
| 20 week MA | $11.0 | 30% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.6 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $9.75 | 47% above |
| 200 week MA | $6.17 | 132% above |
REAL has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
REAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.3 | $20.3 | +11% |
| 2021 | $20.3 | $11.7 | -42% |
| 2022 | $11.7 | $1.10 | -91% |
| 2023 | $1.10 | $2.01 | +83% |
| 2024 | $2.01 | $10.9 | +440% |
| 2025 | $10.9 | $16.2 | +49% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.2 | $14.3 | -12% |
REAL has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.