BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
MUSA has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
MUSA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
MUSA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
MUSA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $385 | -28% |
| Fair | 15x | $534 | -0.1% |
| Current | 15x | $535 | — |
| Forward | 18x | $535 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $697 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MUSA has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over MUSA on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
MUSA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MUSA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over MUSA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MUSA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.88 | -16% |
| Q3 2026 | $35.49 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.66 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.75 | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.10 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.62 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.06 | -2.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.62 | -0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.11 | -5.4% |
MUSA earned $35.49 per share over the past year, up 50% from the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over MUSA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over MUSA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MUSA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.9B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5B | -8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5B | -6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7B | -7.1% |
MUSA's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $6.9B last quarter, up 35% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.5% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | -0.1 points |
MUSA's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
MUSA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $193.7M | +186% |
| Q2 2026 | $123.3M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $221.7M | +445% |
| Q4 2025 | $128.8M | +5.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.7M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $137.1M | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.7M | -25% |
MUSA has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MUSA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -192K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -872K shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -3.4M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -7.8M shares |
| Available history | -42% | -13.5M shares |
MUSA has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $156.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $82.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $70.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $66.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $219.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $213.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $128M |
MUSA spent $376M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 47% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over MUSA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MUSA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
MUSA's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
MUSA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.4 | Neutral |
MUSA's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
MUSA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MUSA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 16% below |
| PE % | 50 | 47 | 3 pts above |
MUSA has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
MUSA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $528.7 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $547.2 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $503.4 | 6.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $467.6 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $425.8 | 26% above |
MUSA has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
MUSA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $119.5 | $130.2 | +8.9% |
| 2021 | $130.2 | $191.6 | +47% |
| 2022 | $191.6 | $293.4 | +53% |
| 2023 | $293.4 | $356.6 | +22% |
| 2024 | $356.6 | $505.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $505.2 | $405.0 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $405.0 | $534.7 | +32% |
MUSA has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.