BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
MAT has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
MAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
MAT's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
MAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.2x | $15.53 | — |
| Cheap | 9.4x | $15.95 | +2.7% |
| Forward | 11x | $15.53 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $21.78 | +40% |
| Expensive | 32x | $53.59 | +245% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAT has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over MAT on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
MAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MAT's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.40 | -17% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.34 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.56 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.32 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.53 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | +88% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | +163% |
MAT has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over MAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $862.2M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $826.6M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +1.6% |
MAT's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1% | -6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | -5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.7% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4% | -2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6% | +1 points |
MAT has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
MAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$221.5M | +$101.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$67.8M | -1799% |
| Q4 2025 | $760.8M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.1M | -48% |
| Q2 2025 | -$323.3M | -$53.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $4M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $835.5M | -9.6% |
MAT has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.1M shares |
| 1 year | -9.8% | -31.3M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -70.7M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -67.4M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -61.5M shares |
MAT has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $187.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $131.7M |
MAT spent $496M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 8.9% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over MAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MAT's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
MAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.3 | Neutral |
MAT's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
MAT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.2x | 18x | 49% below |
| PE % | 14 | 47 | 33 pts below |
MAT has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
MAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.6 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.8 | 4.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.1 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.4 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.2 | 15% below |
MAT has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
MAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.8 | $17.5 | +27% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $20.7 | +18% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $16.9 | -18% |
| 2023 | $16.9 | $18.9 | +12% |
| 2024 | $18.9 | $18.0 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $18.0 | $20.3 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.3 | $15.5 | -23% |
MAT has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.