BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
M
Macy's, Inc.
M has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
M Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
M's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over M in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
M PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.1x | $11.23 | -54% |
| Fair | 7.3x | $19.94 | -18% |
| Current | 8.9x | $24.33 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $24.33 | — |
| Expensive | 23x | $61.89 | +154% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
M's PE is in its fair range at 8.9x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x, in its expensive range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over M on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
M Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect M's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
M Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.24 | -18% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.73 | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.42 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.32 | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | +183% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.76 | +171% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.98 | +4850% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.07 | +445% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.60 | -76% |
M has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over M on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over M on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
M Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.9B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9B | -1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5B | -1.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.8B | -4.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $8B | -4.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.9B | -2.7% |
M's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $5.1B last quarter, up 1.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.8% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.4% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.2% | +7.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3% | -0.4 points |
M's operating margin was 4.8% last quarter, up 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
M Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $229M | -4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $204M | +$368M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | -9% |
| Q4 2025 | -$101M | +$194M |
| Q3 2025 | $240M | +$349M |
| Q2 2025 | -$164M | -$139M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | -$295M | -$87M |
M has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
M Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -800K shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -1.9M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -46.7M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -39.1M shares |
M has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $53M |
| Q2 2026 | $51M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | $51M |
| Q3 2025 | $52M |
| Q2 2025 | $97M |
| Q1 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
M spent $205M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 37% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
M Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
M's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.1 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
M Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.4 | Neutral |
M's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 61 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
M PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | M | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9x | 18x | 51% below |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
M has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
M Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.5 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $23.3 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.0 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $18.3 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $17.6 | 38% above |
M has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
M Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.5 | $10.8 | -35% |
| 2021 | $10.8 | $25.1 | +134% |
| 2022 | $25.1 | $20.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $20.3 | $20.1 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $17.5 | -13% |
| 2025 | $17.5 | $22.5 | +28% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.5 | $24.3 | +8.3% |
M has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.