BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LULU
Lululemon Athletica Inc.
LULU has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LULU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
LULU's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
LULU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.6x | $104 | — |
| Forward | 13x | $104 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $167 | +60% |
| Fair | 40x | $490 | +369% |
| Expensive | 69x | $834 | +699% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LULU has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over LULU on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
LULU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Weakening | |
| Broad | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LULU's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
LULU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.19 | -33% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.17 | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.35 | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.26 | -9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $14.37 | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.65 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.70 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.64 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.84 | +76% |
LULU has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LULU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +6.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.6B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.4B | +8.7% |
LULU's revenue has held roughly level: $2.4B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | -6.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +5.1 points |
LULU has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
LULU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $225.2M | +49% |
| Q2 2026 | $87.1M | +$358.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $959.7M | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $82.4M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $150.8M | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | -$271.2M | -$268.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $122.2M | -46% |
LULU has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
LULU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.2% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -6.8M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -14.3M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -17.6M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -17.9M shares |
LULU has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $333.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $361.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $271.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $190.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $281.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $434.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $335.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $412.6M |
LULU spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 21% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
LULU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
LULU has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LULU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.5 | Neutral |
LULU's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
LULU PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LULU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.6x | 18x | 52% below |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
LULU has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
LULU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $101.1 | 3.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $109.2 | 4.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $141.5 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $202.2 | 48% below |
| 200 week MA | $281.9 | 63% below |
LULU has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over LULU on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LULU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $230.0 | $351.4 | +53% |
| 2021 | $351.4 | $391.6 | +11% |
| 2022 | $391.6 | $311.5 | -20% |
| 2023 | $311.5 | $511.3 | +64% |
| 2024 | $511.3 | $386.7 | -24% |
| 2025 | $386.7 | $209.0 | -46% |
| 2026 YTD | $209.0 | $104.5 | -50% |
LULU has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 50% so far in 2026.