BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over HOG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HOG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
HOG's balance sheet is currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
HOG PE Valuation
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HOG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over HOG on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
HOG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.90 | -121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93 | -31% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.79 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.44 | -29% |
HOG has swung to a loss: it lost $0.90 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over HOG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over HOG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $496.2M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $687.6M | -35% |
HOG's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $1.1B last quarter, down 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | -32 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | -73% | -45 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -28% | -26 points |
HOG's operating margin was 3.5% last quarter, down 32 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
HOG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.9M | +$445M |
| Q2 2026 | $155.4M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | -$259.8M | -333% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.4M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | -$129.1M | -143% |
| Q2 2025 | $332.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $111.6M | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +$97.4M |
HOG has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HOG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -15.1M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -37.7M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -48.5M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -51.2M shares |
HOG has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $90.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $70M |
| Q4 2025 | $160.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $45,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $93.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
HOG spent $351M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over HOG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HOG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 15.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4x | High |
HOG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HOG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
HOG's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
HOG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 11% below |
| PE % | 87 | 47 | 40 pts above |
HOG has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
HOG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.6 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.4 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.1 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.1 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.4 | 6.6% above |
HOG has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HOG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.8 | $37.1 | -1.7% |
| 2021 | $37.1 | $36.2 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $36.2 | $41.4 | +14% |
| 2023 | $41.4 | $36.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $36.8 | $30.3 | -18% |
| 2025 | $30.3 | $21.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.0 | $32.4 | +54% |
HOG has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.