BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
HLT has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HLT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
HLT's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over HLT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HLT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 32x | $239 | -36% |
| Forward | 37x | $373 | — |
| Fair | 42x | $314 | -16% |
| Current | 50x | $373 | — |
| Expensive | 53x | $394 | +5.7% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HLT's PE is in its expensive range at 50x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 37x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HLT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HLT, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
HLT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.05 | +36% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.40 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.81 | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.55 | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.12 | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.90 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.50 | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.33 | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.14 | +42% |
HLT has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HLT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +6.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +6.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | +4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +6.7% |
HLT has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 25% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +2.2 points |
HLT has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
HLT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $689M | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $460M | -28% |
| Q1 2026 | $609M | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $173M | -68% |
| Q3 2025 | $787M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $635M | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | $433M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $534M | +26% |
HLT has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HLT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.6% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -36M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -55M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -64M shares |
HLT has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $846M |
| Q2 2026 | $966M |
| Q1 2026 | $821M |
| Q4 2025 | $779M |
| Q3 2025 | $759M |
| Q2 2025 | $769M |
| Q1 2025 | $875M |
| Q4 2024 | $766M |
HLT spent $3.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 7.7% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over HLT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HLT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
HLT's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HLT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 72.6 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.1 | Overbought |
HLT's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over HLT on valuation relative to its sector.
HLT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HLT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 50x | 18x | 180% above |
| PE % | 76 | 47 | 29 pts above |
HLT is trading at 50x earnings, a 180% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
HLT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $344.3 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $330.6 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $319.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $287.0 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $234.9 | 59% above |
HLT has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HLT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $112.4 | $106.9 | -4.9% |
| 2021 | $106.9 | $154.7 | +45% |
| 2022 | $154.7 | $126.4 | -18% |
| 2023 | $126.4 | $182.1 | +44% |
| 2024 | $182.1 | $249.9 | +37% |
| 2025 | $249.9 | $293.5 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $293.5 | $372.7 | +27% |
HLT has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.