BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over GHG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
GHG
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.
GHG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
GHG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
GHG's balance sheet is currently strong, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over GHG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GHG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.1x | $0.43 | -59% |
| Current | 16x | $1.03 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $1.05 | +1.6% |
| Expensive | 33x | $1.95 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GHG's PE is 16x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GHG Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for GHG to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
GHG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.06 | -79% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18 | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +94% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.27 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.28 | +460% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.23 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.16 | +60% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.23 | +92% |
GHG has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over GHG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GHG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $35.2M | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.2M | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.2M | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $45.6M | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $43.9M | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $43.9M | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $45.7M | -18% |
| Q3 2024 | $53.6M | -11% |
GHG's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $35M last quarter, down 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -7% | +26 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -6.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -10 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -33% | -46 points |
| Q3 2024 | 30% | +29 points |
GHG has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
GHG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.6M | -65% |
| Q1 2026 | $961.8K | -79% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.8M | -180% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5M | -62% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5M | +$7.8M |
| Q3 2024 | $19.6M | +6.8% |
GHG has the edge over BABA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
GHG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -503K shares |
| 3 years | -1.3% | -1.3M shares |
| 5 years | -2.1% | -2.2M shares |
| Available history | -1.3% | -1.3M shares |
GHG has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $9,779 |
| Q3 2024 | $45,040 |
GHG hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
GHG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
GHG has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
GHG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.0 | Neutral |
GHG's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 30 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
GHG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GHG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 9.3% below |
| PE % | 46 | 47 | 1 pt below |
GHG has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
GHG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $0.98 | 5.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $1.06 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.25 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.75 | 41% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.73 | 62% below |
GHG has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over GHG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GHG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.0 | $13.0 | 0% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $8.51 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.51 | $3.86 | -55% |
| 2023 | $3.86 | $3.76 | -2.6% |
| 2024 | $3.76 | $2.52 | -33% |
| 2025 | $2.52 | $1.79 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.79 | $1.03 | -42% |
GHG has finished every year since 2020 lower, and it's down 42% so far in 2026.