BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
FWRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FWRG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
FWRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 40x | $12.94 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $13.57 | +4.9% |
| Forward | 55x | $12.94 | — |
| Fair | 70x | $22.45 | +73% |
| Expensive | 199x | $63.78 | +393% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FWRG has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over FWRG on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
FWRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FWRG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
FWRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | -27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.32 | +300% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29 | +383% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +3.3% |
FWRG has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over FWRG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FWRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $349.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $331M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $316.4M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $316M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $307.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $282.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.3M | +7.6% |
FWRG has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5% | -1.3 points |
FWRG's operating margin was 3.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
FWRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.1M | -$11.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +$21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.3M | -$588K |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7M | -174% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.4M | -$12.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$17.8M | -$8.3M |
FWRG has burned cash in most quarters: −$21M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
FWRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +254K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -283K shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +988K shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +16.5M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +17.5M shares |
FWRG has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over FWRG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FWRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
FWRG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
FWRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
FWRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over FWRG on valuation relative to its sector.
FWRG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FWRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 124% above |
| PE % | 11 | 57 | 46 pts below |
FWRG is trading at 40x earnings, a 124% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
FWRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.0 | 7.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 23% below |
FWRG has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
FWRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.1 | $16.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $14.2 | -11% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $20.1 | +41% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -7% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $12.9 | -19% |
FWRG has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.