BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CVNA
Carvana Co.
CVNA has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CVNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CVNA's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CVNA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 34x | $70.84 | — |
| Forward | 35x | $70.84 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $75.86 | +7.1% |
| Fair | 83x | $173 | +144% |
| Expensive | 113x | $235 | +231% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CVNA has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over CVNA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CVNA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CVNA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CVNA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | -1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.08 | +136% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.89 | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73 | +204% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.69 | +428% |
| Q3 2023 | -$1.22 | +$0.57 |
| Q2 2023 | -$2.51 | -$1.18 |
| Q1 2023 | -$2.87 | -$2.06 |
| Q4 2022 | -$3.15 | -$2.82 |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CVNA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8B | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.4B | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.4B | +52% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6B | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.8B | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.2B | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | +46% |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.9% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.2% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | N/A |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CVNA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $491M | +60% |
| Q2 2026 | $187M | +$189M |
| Q1 2026 | $56M | -73% |
| Q4 2025 | $379M | +953% |
| Q3 2025 | $307M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2M | -101% |
| Q1 2025 | $205M | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $36M | +$293M |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over CVNA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CVNA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -50K shares |
| 1 year | +3.3% | +23.8M shares |
| 3 years | +40% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +123% | +408M shares |
CVNA has 740M diluted shares, up 3.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $2M |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CVNA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2021 | 186.0x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 128.9x | High |
CVNA's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CVNA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.9 | Neutral |
CVNA's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CVNA on valuation relative to its sector.
CVNA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CVNA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 18x | 89% above |
| PE % | 8 | 47 | 39 pts below |
CVNA is trading at 34x earnings, a 89% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CVNA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $65.2 | 8.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $67.3 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $71.3 | 0.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $64.7 | 9.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.2 | 76% above |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CVNA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.6 | $54.9 | +181% |
| 2021 | $54.9 | $48.2 | -12% |
| 2022 | $48.2 | $0.81 | -98% |
| 2023 | $0.81 | $10.6 | +1207% |
| 2024 | $10.6 | $43.0 | +306% |
| 2025 | $43.0 | $87.7 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.7 | $70.8 | -19% |
CVNA has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.