BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CMG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $35.17 | — |
| Current | 33x | $35.17 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $39.28 | +12% |
| Fair | 56x | $59.81 | +70% |
| Expensive | 91x | $97.34 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMG has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CMG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.13 | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | +25% |
CMG has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +13% |
CMG has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.2 points |
CMG has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.1M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $463.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $471M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228.4M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $406.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $412.3M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $353.9M | +278% |
CMG has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -11.4M shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -71.8M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -156M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -147M shares |
CMG has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $653.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $701M |
| Q4 2025 | $741.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $686.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $443.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $553.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M |
CMG spent $2.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
CMG has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
CMG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CMG on valuation relative to its sector.
CMG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 47 | 36 pts below |
CMG is trading at 33x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 1.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 21% below |
CMG has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $28.3 | +69% |
| 2021 | $28.3 | $35.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $35.0 | $28.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $45.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $45.7 | $60.8 | +33% |
| 2025 | $60.8 | $37.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $35.2 | -7% |
CMG has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.