BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over CHH overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
CHH
Choice Hotels International, Inc.
CHH offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CHH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CHH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over CHH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CHH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $73.78 | -38% |
| Forward | 16x | $118 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $95.93 | -19% |
| Current | 26x | $118 | — |
| Expensive | 35x | $155 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CHH's PE is in its fair range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over CHH on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CHH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CHH, but weaker profitability.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CHH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.52 | +68% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.48 | -45% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.06 | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.40 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.90 | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.11 | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.47 | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.52 | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.20 | +22% |
CHH has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over CHH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CHH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $458.3M | +2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $440.8M | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $340.6M | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $390.2M | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $447.3M | +4.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $426.4M | -2% |
| Q1 2025 | $332.9M | +0.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $389.8M | +8.8% |
CHH's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $458M last quarter, up 2.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | -8.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | -5.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -6.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | -4.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -3.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 31% | +20 points |
CHH has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CHH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44.3M | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.1M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | -$40M | -$25M |
| Q4 2025 | $64.1M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.1M | -70% |
| Q2 2025 | $65.4M | -8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$15M | +$16M |
| Q4 2024 | $57.4M | +296% |
CHH has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CHH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -317K shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -1.4M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -5.4M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -10.8M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -10.6M shares |
CHH has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $58.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $51M |
| Q1 2026 | $56.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $25.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $202,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $48.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $64.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $31.8M |
CHH spent $192M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 32% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over CHH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CHH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
CHH's net debt is about 4.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.6 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CHH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 83.8 | Overbought |
CHH's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CHH on valuation relative to its sector.
CHH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CHH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 18x | 47% above |
| PE % | 65 | 47 | 18 pts above |
CHH is trading at 26x earnings, a 47% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CHH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $109.4 | 8.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $107.8 | 9.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $106.2 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $115.5 | 2.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $119.2 | 0.8% below |
CHH has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CHH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $104.9 | $104.1 | -0.8% |
| 2021 | $104.1 | $152.7 | +47% |
| 2022 | $152.7 | $112.2 | -27% |
| 2023 | $112.2 | $113.3 | +1% |
| 2024 | $113.3 | $140.8 | +24% |
| 2025 | $140.8 | $96.0 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $96.0 | $118.3 | +23% |
CHH has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.