BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CART
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)
CART has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CART Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CART's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CART PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $58.48 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $43.21 | -26% |
| Fair | 25x | $48.42 | -17% |
| Expensive | 29x | $55.58 | -5% |
| Current | 30x | $58.48 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CART has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CART Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CART, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CART Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.74 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.84 | +6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.60 | +1.3% |
CART has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CART Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $992M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $939M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $914M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $897M | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $883M | +10% |
CART has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +5.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8% | -7.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +12 points |
CART has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CART Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $306M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $481M | +157% |
| Q1 2026 | $252M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $171M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $272M | +59% |
| Q2 2025 | $187M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $280M | +208% |
| Q4 2024 | $141M | -35% |
CART has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CART Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -13% | -35.6M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -28.9M shares |
CART has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $238M |
| Q2 2026 | $324M |
| Q1 2026 | $359M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2025 | $62M |
| Q2 2025 | $121M |
| Q1 2025 | $89M |
| Q4 2024 | $5M |
CART spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about seven times what it spent the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CART Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
CART has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CART Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 78.4 | Neutral |
CART's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CART on valuation relative to its sector.
CART PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CART | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 18x | 68% above |
| PE % | 92 | 31 | 61 pts above |
CART is trading at 30x earnings, a 68% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
CART has stronger trend alignment. BABA is above 0 of 5 weekly averages versus CART above 4 of 4.
CART Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $51.8 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $49.3 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.0 | 33% above |
| 100 week MA | $43.8 | 33% above |
CART is in an uptrend: it's above all four of its weekly moving averages, and 33% above its 100-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CART Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $30.0 | $23.5 | -22% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $42.2 | +80% |
| 2025 | $42.2 | $45.9 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.9 | $58.5 | +28% |
CART has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.