BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CAKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CAKE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over CAKE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $69.55 | -35% |
| Fair | 19x | $80.53 | -24% |
| Forward | 21x | $106 | — |
| Current | 25x | $106 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $150 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAKE's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAKE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CAKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.05 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.21 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.68 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.19 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.20 | +55% |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $978.8M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $961.6M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $907.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $955.8M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $927.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $921M | +5% |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.1 points |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CAKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.3M | +222% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.8M | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.9M | +110% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.3M | +$16.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $36.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.1M | +234% |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over CAKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CAKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.2% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +360K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.9M shares |
CAKE has 51M diluted shares, up 5.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $131,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $763,000 |
CAKE spent $43M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 70% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over CAKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
CAKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CAKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.4 | Neutral |
CAKE's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CAKE on valuation relative to its sector.
CAKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 40% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
CAKE is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CAKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.9 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.9 | 3.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.5 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.7 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.0 | 108% above |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CAKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $37.2 | -3% |
| 2021 | $37.2 | $40.3 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $32.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $32.1 | $35.0 | +9.2% |
| 2024 | $35.0 | $48.0 | +37% |
| 2025 | $48.0 | $52.6 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.6 | $106.2 | +102% |
CAKE has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.