BA
The Boeing Company
BA has a slight edge over GEO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
BA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
BA's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
GEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GEO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
BA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $172 | — |
| Cheap | 51x | $496 | +189% |
| Fair | 82x | $790 | +360% |
| Expensive | 91x | $876 | +411% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BA has the edge over GEO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $8.70 | -73% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.62 | -58% |
| Forward | 16x | $32.22 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $31.14 | -3.4% |
| Current | 27x | $32.22 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GEO's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect BA to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GEO, with profitability improving.
BA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.66 | +$23.38 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78 | +$19.33 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.53 | +$20.49 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.48 | +$20.84 |
| Q3 2025 | -$13.72 | -$0.83 |
| Q2 2025 | -$16.55 | -$10.93 |
| Q1 2025 | -$17.96 | -$14.42 |
| Q4 2024 | -$18.36 | -$14.69 |
BA has returned to profit: it earned $9.66 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
GEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.18 | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05 | +201% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | +695% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +592% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | +209% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -69% |
GEO has the edge over BA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.2B | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.6B | +8% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.2B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.9B | +57% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.3B | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.7B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.5B | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.2B | -31% |
BA has the edge over GEO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.5% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | +61 points |
| Q3 2025 | -21% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8% | +5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.4% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -25% | -26 points |
BA's operating margin was 1.5% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $761.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.1M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $705.2M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $707.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $682.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $636.2M | +4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $607.7M | -0.1% |
GEO's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $761M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | -7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.6 points |
GEO has the edge over BA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $464M | +95% |
| Q2 2026 | $631M | +$831M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.5B | +$836M |
| Q4 2025 | $375M | +$4.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $238M | +$2.2B |
| Q2 2025 | -$200M | +$4.1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.3B | +$1.6B |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.1B | -239% |
BA has the edge over GEO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.6M | +$190.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +2420% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.8M | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.6M | -$151.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.5M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.3M | -107% |
GEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $217M over the past year.
BA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +4.3% | +32.8M shares |
| 3 years | +31% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +35% | +204M shares |
| Available history | +40% | +227M shares |
BA has 793M diluted shares, up 4.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
GEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -22K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -8M shares |
| 3 years | +6.9% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +11.1M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12.7M shares |
GEO has the edge over BA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.4M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q3 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q2 2020 | — |
GEO spent $136M buying back its own shares over the past year.
BA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.9x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 361.8x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 36.1x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 36.4x | High |
| Q3 2023 | 96.1x | High |
BA's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from more than 20 years a year ago.
GEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
GEO has the edge over BA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 31.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.6 | Oversold |
BA's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
GEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.6 | Neutral |
GEO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
BA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | BA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 24x | 26% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
BA has the edge over GEO on valuation relative to its sector.
GEO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
GEO is trading at 27x earnings, a 13% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
BA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $184.6 | 7.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $203.8 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $215.5 | 20% below |
| 100 week MA | $205.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $200.6 | 14% below |
BA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 14% below its 200-week average.
GEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.6 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.1 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $18.0 | 79% above |
GEO has the edge over BA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $330.1 | $217.2 | -34% |
| 2021 | $217.2 | $204.2 | -6% |
| 2022 | $204.2 | $189.1 | -7.4% |
| 2023 | $189.1 | $260.7 | +38% |
| 2024 | $260.7 | $180.7 | -31% |
| 2025 | $180.7 | $216.4 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $216.4 | $171.6 | -21% |
BA has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 21% so far in 2026.
GEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.8 | $8.98 | -47% |
| 2021 | $8.98 | $7.67 | -15% |
| 2022 | $7.67 | $11.2 | +46% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $10.8 | -3.1% |
| 2024 | $10.8 | $27.7 | +155% |
| 2025 | $27.7 | $16.3 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.3 | $32.2 | +98% |
GEO has the edge over BA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.