AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
AXSM has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
AXSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
AXSM's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AXSM PE Valuation
AXSM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 83x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AXSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AXSM has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AXSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.74 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$3.05 | +$1.62 |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.74 | +$1.33 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.72 | +$2.05 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.68 | +$2.31 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.67 | +$1.93 |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.07 | +$1.51 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.77 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.99 | -$0.72 |
AXSM is still losing money, but far less than before: $3.05 per share over the past year, against $6.60 at its worst in late 2024.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over AXSM on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AXSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $259.7M | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $218.4M | +46% |
| Q1 2026 | $191.2M | +57% |
| Q4 2025 | $196M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $171M | +63% |
| Q2 2025 | $150M | +72% |
| Q1 2025 | $121.5M | +62% |
| Q4 2024 | $118.8M | +66% |
AXSM has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.3% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -33% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -14% | +47 points |
| Q3 2025 | -27% | +33 points |
| Q2 2025 | -24% | +65 points |
| Q1 2025 | -47% | +43 points |
| Q4 2024 | -61% | +76 points |
AXSM's operating margin was −4.3% last quarter, up 23 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2022.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over AXSM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AXSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.7M | -1078% |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.4M | -$966K |
| Q1 2026 | -$20.8M | +$22.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.7M | +$7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $988K | +$19.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$32.4M | -$2.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$43.7M | +$9.9M |
| Q4 2024 | -$26.2M | +$4.1M |
AXSM has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$83M over the past year, against −$101M the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over AXSM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AXSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +645K shares |
| 1 year | +4.8% | +2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +5.3M shares |
| 5 years | +39% | +14.8M shares |
| Available history | +54% | +18.4M shares |
AXSM has 52M diluted shares, up 4.8% from a year ago.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over AXSM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
AXSM Net Leverage
AXSM's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AXSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.4 | Oversold |
AXSM's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
AXSM PE vs Healthcare Sector
AXSM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
AXSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $158.3 | 8.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $195.1 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.3 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $152.4 | 5.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $114.9 | 26% above |
AXSM has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 26% above its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
AXSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $102.0 | $84.9 | -17% |
| 2021 | $84.9 | $38.5 | -55% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $73.8 | +92% |
| 2023 | $73.8 | $79.6 | +7.9% |
| 2024 | $79.6 | $86.7 | +8.9% |
| 2025 | $86.7 | $152.1 | +75% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.1 | $144.4 | -5.1% |
AXSM has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.