AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
AXSM's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over AXSM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AXSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
AXSM's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AXSM PE Valuation
AXSM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 83x next year's earnings.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AXSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AXSM to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
AXSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.74 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$3.05 | +$1.62 |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.74 | +$1.33 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.72 | +$2.05 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.68 | +$2.31 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.67 | +$1.93 |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.07 | +$1.51 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.77 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.99 | -$0.72 |
AXSM is still losing money, but far less than before: $3.05 per share over the past year, against $6.60 at its worst in late 2024.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AXSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $259.7M | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $218.4M | +46% |
| Q1 2026 | $191.2M | +57% |
| Q4 2025 | $196M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $171M | +63% |
| Q2 2025 | $150M | +72% |
| Q1 2025 | $121.5M | +62% |
| Q4 2024 | $118.8M | +66% |
AXSM has the edge over LLY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.3% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -33% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -14% | +47 points |
| Q3 2025 | -27% | +33 points |
| Q2 2025 | -24% | +65 points |
| Q1 2025 | -47% | +43 points |
| Q4 2024 | -61% | +76 points |
AXSM's operating margin was −4.3% last quarter, up 23 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AXSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.7M | -1078% |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.4M | -$966K |
| Q1 2026 | -$20.8M | +$22.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.7M | +$7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $988K | +$19.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$32.4M | -$2.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$43.7M | +$9.9M |
| Q4 2024 | -$26.2M | +$4.1M |
AXSM has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$83M over the past year, against −$101M the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AXSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +645K shares |
| 1 year | +4.8% | +2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +5.3M shares |
| 5 years | +39% | +14.8M shares |
| Available history | +54% | +18.4M shares |
AXSM has 52M diluted shares, up 4.8% from a year ago.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AXSM Net Leverage
AXSM's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AXSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.4 | Oversold |
AXSM's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
AXSM PE vs Healthcare Sector
AXSM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
AXSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $158.3 | 8.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $195.1 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.3 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $152.4 | 5.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $114.9 | 26% above |
AXSM has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 26% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AXSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $102.0 | $84.9 | -17% |
| 2021 | $84.9 | $38.5 | -55% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $73.8 | +92% |
| 2023 | $73.8 | $79.6 | +7.9% |
| 2024 | $79.6 | $86.7 | +8.9% |
| 2025 | $86.7 | $152.1 | +75% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.1 | $144.4 | -5.1% |
AXSM has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 5.1% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over AXSM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.