AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
AXS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AXS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AXS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AXS's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AXS.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AXS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.1x | $106 | -2.2% |
| Current | 8.3x | $108 | — |
| Forward | 8.4x | $108 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $141 | +31% |
| Expensive | 17x | $219 | +102% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AXS has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AXS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect AXS's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over AXS on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
AXS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.88 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.05 | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.04 | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.38 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.35 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.10 | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.40 | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.08 | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.35 | +207% |
AXS earned $13.05 per share over the past year, up 7.9% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AXS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AXS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | +8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +3.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | -0.6% |
AXS's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 6.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -7.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +7.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -3.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +31 points |
AXS's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 7.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AXS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AXS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AXS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $877.5M | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $631.5M | +$2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $519.4M | +68% |
| Q4 2025 | $630.4M | +77% |
| Q3 2025 | $673.8M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7B | -419% |
| Q1 2025 | $309.1M | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $355.5M | +16% |
AXS has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AXS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -830K shares |
| 1 year | -6.7% | -5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -12.7M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -12M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -11.1M shares |
AXS has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $89.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $59.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $287.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $110M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $440M |
| Q4 2024 | $60.1M |
AXS spent $546M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 17% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AXS Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AXS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.1 | Neutral |
AXS's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AXS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AXS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.3x | 13x | 36% below |
| PE % | 21 | 63 | 42 pts below |
AXS has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AXS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 7.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $103.6 | 4.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $102.6 | 5.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $99.3 | 9% above |
| 200 week MA | $81.5 | 33% above |
AXS has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AXS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.6 | $50.4 | -16% |
| 2021 | $50.4 | $52.1 | +3.4% |
| 2022 | $52.1 | $54.8 | +5.3% |
| 2023 | $54.8 | $55.4 | +1% |
| 2024 | $55.4 | $89.3 | +61% |
| 2025 | $89.3 | $109.0 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $109.0 | $108.2 | -0.7% |
AXS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 0.7% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AXS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.