AXP
American Express Company
AXP has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over AXP overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AXP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AXP's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AXP.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AXP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $276 | -13% |
| Forward | 16x | $318 | — |
| Current | 18x | $318 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $338 | +6.4% |
| Expensive | 23x | $407 | +28% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AXP has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AXP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AXP, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
AXP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.38 | +9.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.75 | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.47 | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.02 | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.38 | +9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.90 | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.25 | +6.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.32 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.01 | +25% |
AXP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $17.75 over the past year, up 19% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AXP on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
AXP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.1B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.9B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $19B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.4B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $17.9B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $17B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.2B | +8.7% |
AXP's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $20.1B last quarter, up 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +0.1 points |
AXP's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AXP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AXP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AXP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.7B | -39% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.3B | -56% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | +$7.8B |
| Q2 2025 | $3.7B | -5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.3B | -17% |
AXP has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AXP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -5M shares |
| 1 year | -2.7% | -19M shares |
| 3 years | -8% | -59M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -113M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -156M shares |
AXP has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B |
| Q4 2025 | $899M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $1B |
AXP spent $6.7B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 13% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AXP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
AXP has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AXP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
AXP's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AXP PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AXP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 13x | 38% above |
| PE % | 36 | 63 | 27 pts below |
AXP is trading at 18x earnings, a 38% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over AXP on valuation relative to its sector.
AXP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $313.1 | 1.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $327.0 | 2.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $331.4 | 4% below |
| 100 week MA | $319.7 | 0.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $261.5 | 22% above |
AXP's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 22% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over AXP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AXP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $125.2 | $117.4 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $117.4 | $164.2 | +40% |
| 2022 | $164.2 | $147.0 | -10% |
| 2023 | $147.0 | $187.3 | +27% |
| 2024 | $187.3 | $301.1 | +61% |
| 2025 | $301.1 | $381.1 | +27% |
| 2026 YTD | $381.1 | $318.1 | -17% |
AXP has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 17% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AXP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.