AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc.
AVAV offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AVAV overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AVAV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
AVAV's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AVAV PE Valuation
AVAV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AVAV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AVAV, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AVAV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.74 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$4.06 | -$3.42 |
| Q2 2026 | -$5.40 | -448% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.09 | -634% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.25 | -174% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.64 | -131% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.55 | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.14 | +$5.54 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.70 | +$6.63 |
AVAV is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $4.06 per share over the past year, against $7.04 at its worst in early 2023.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AVAV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $480.5M | +5.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $641.6M | +133% |
| Q1 2026 | $408M | +143% |
| Q4 2025 | $472.5M | +151% |
| Q3 2025 | $454.7M | +140% |
| Q2 2025 | $275.1M | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $167.6M | -10% |
| Q4 2024 | $188.5M | +4.2% |
AVAV has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.3% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.9% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | -66% | -64 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.4% | -10 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | -27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.7% | -10 points |
AVAV's operating margin was −2.3% last quarter, up 13 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AVAV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$30.5M | +$115.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $79.1M | +$87.9M |
| Q1 2026 | -$17.7M | +$11.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$55.9M | -$47.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$146.5M | -739% |
| Q2 2025 | -$8.8M | +$12M |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.6M | -161% |
| Q4 2024 | -$8.7M | +$6.3M |
AVAV has burned cash in seven of the last eight quarters: −$25M over the past year, against −$194M the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AVAV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.5% | +735K shares |
| 1 year | +6.3% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +99% | +24.8M shares |
| 5 years | +105% | +25.5M shares |
| Available history | +107% | +25.8M shares |
AVAV has 50M diluted shares, up 6.3% from a year ago.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AVAV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2023 | 1.4x | Healthy |
AVAV's net debt is about 4.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
AVAV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.7 | Oversold |
AVAV's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AVAV PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AVAV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
AVAV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
AVAV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $129.3 | 6.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $147.5 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $194.2 | 38% below |
| 100 week MA | $206.6 | 42% below |
| 200 week MA | $172.5 | 30% below |
AVAV is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 30% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AVAV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $62.1 | $89.0 | +43% |
| 2021 | $89.0 | $63.8 | -28% |
| 2022 | $63.8 | $84.7 | +33% |
| 2023 | $84.7 | $126.0 | +49% |
| 2024 | $126.0 | $157.7 | +25% |
| 2025 | $157.7 | $255.0 | +62% |
| 2026 YTD | $255.0 | $120.8 | -53% |
AVAV is down 53% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AVAV on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.