ATI
ATI Inc.
ATI's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ATI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ATI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
ATI's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ATI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $73.57 | -61% |
| Fair | 26x | $104 | -45% |
| Forward | 30x | $190 | — |
| Current | 47x | $190 | — |
| Expensive | 57x | $228 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ATI's PE is in its expensive range at 47x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over ATI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ATI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ATI, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ATI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.27 | +56% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.01 | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.42 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.03 | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.85 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.09 | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.88 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.76 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.55 | +1.6% |
ATI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ATI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +10% |
ATI's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $1.4B last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +4.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +7.6 points |
ATI's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 4.7 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ATI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ATI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $61.8M | -63% |
| Q2 2026 | $63.2M | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $73M | +$218.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $223.1M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $167M | +$208.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $89.4M | +119% |
| Q1 2025 | -$145.8M | +$18.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $333.6M | -8.3% |
ATI generated $421M in free cash flow over the past year, down 5.2% from the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ATI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -2.1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.9% | -11.8M shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -14.2M shares |
| Available history | -5.5% | -8.1M shares |
ATI has 138M diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $70M |
| Q2 2026 | $50M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $150M |
| Q2 2025 | $250M |
| Q1 2025 | $70M |
| Q4 2024 | $70M |
ATI spent $195M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 64% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ATI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ATI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ATI's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.8 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ATI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ATI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.3 | Neutral |
ATI's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ATI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ATI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 47x | 24x | 97% above |
| PE % | 76 | 58 | 18 pts above |
ATI is trading at 47x earnings, a 97% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ATI on valuation relative to its sector.
ATI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $180.5 | 5.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $193.3 | 1.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $165.9 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $119.2 | 60% above |
| 200 week MA | $83.7 | 127% above |
ATI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ATI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.0 | $16.7 | -20% |
| 2021 | $16.7 | $15.6 | -6.7% |
| 2022 | $15.6 | $30.3 | +94% |
| 2023 | $30.3 | $45.5 | +50% |
| 2024 | $45.5 | $55.5 | +22% |
| 2025 | $55.5 | $117.0 | +111% |
| 2026 YTD | $117.0 | $190.2 | +63% |
ATI has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.