ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UPBD
Upbound Group, Inc.
UPBD has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UPBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
UPBD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.3x | $23.88 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $21.16 | -11% |
| Current | 13x | $23.88 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $28.18 | +18% |
| Expensive | 31x | $59.71 | +150% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPBD's PE is in its fair range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 5.3x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UPBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect UPBD's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
UPBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.52 | +136% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.91 | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | -13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.44 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | -43% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.45 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.78 | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.13 | +$2.56 |
| Q4 2024 | $2.21 | +$2.30 |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over UPBD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UPBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +6% |
UPBD's revenue has held roughly level: $1.1B last quarter, down 1.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.2% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.3% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.8% | -2.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5% | -2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | +1.8 points |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
UPBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $147M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $107.8M | +$118.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $154.7M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24M | +$98.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $97.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | -$10.4M | -1802% |
| Q1 2025 | $127.2M | +278% |
| Q4 2024 | -$74M | -$37.1M |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
UPBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +59K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -123K shares |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +1.9M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -9.4M shares |
| Available history | +5% | +2.8M shares |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $26M |
| Q4 2022 | $45.3M |
| Q4 2021 | $370.1M |
| Q3 2021 | $20M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UPBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
UPBD has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
UPBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.5 | Overbought |
UPBD's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPBD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | UPBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 28x | 55% below |
| PE % | 33 | 35 | 2 pts below |
UPBD is trading at 13x earnings, a 55% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
UPBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 28% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.2 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $21.7 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $26.2 | 8.9% below |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
UPBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.5 | $38.2 | +34% |
| 2021 | $38.2 | $48.1 | +26% |
| 2022 | $48.1 | $22.6 | -53% |
| 2023 | $22.6 | $34.0 | +50% |
| 2024 | $34.0 | $29.2 | -14% |
| 2025 | $29.2 | $17.6 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.6 | $23.9 | +36% |
UPBD has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.