ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation
SAIC has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SAIC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
SAIC's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SAIC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $114 | -25% |
| Forward | 14x | $151 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $157 | +3.7% |
| Current | 18x | $151 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $202 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAIC's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SAIC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SAIC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
SAIC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.73 | +25% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.56 | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.89 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.70 | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.80 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.24 | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.11 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.17 | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.96 | -37% |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over SAIC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SAIC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | -4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | -5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | -2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | +4.3% |
SAIC's revenue grew through 2020 and has held roughly level since: $1.9B last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.4% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.9% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.5% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.1% | +0.5 points |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
SAIC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $118M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $250M | +150% |
| Q4 2025 | $120M | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $115M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $92M | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $100M | +92% |
| Q4 2024 | $134M | +38% |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
SAIC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.7% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | -8.5% | -4M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -11.1M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -15.6M shares |
| Available history | -27% | -15.5M shares |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $98M |
| Q2 2026 | $188M |
| Q1 2026 | $98M |
| Q4 2025 | $95M |
| Q3 2025 | $110M |
| Q2 2025 | $142M |
| Q1 2025 | $133M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
SAIC spent $479M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 5.3% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SAIC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
SAIC's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
SAIC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 86.2 | Overbought |
SAIC's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SAIC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SAIC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 37% below |
| PE % | 45 | 35 | 10 pts above |
SAIC is trading at 18x earnings, a 37% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
SAIC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.1 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $129.7 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $111.9 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $109.9 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $115.1 | 31% above |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
SAIC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.3 | $96.8 | +9.7% |
| 2021 | $96.8 | $82.4 | -15% |
| 2022 | $82.4 | $109.5 | +33% |
| 2023 | $109.5 | $124.3 | +14% |
| 2024 | $124.3 | $111.1 | -11% |
| 2025 | $111.1 | $102.7 | -7.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $102.7 | $151.2 | +47% |
SAIC has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.