ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
IPGP
IPG Photonics Corporation
IPGP has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IPGP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
IPGP's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IPGP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $19.24 | -73% |
| Forward | 35x | $70.86 | — |
| Fair | 47x | $43.25 | -39% |
| Current | 76x | $70.86 | — |
| Expensive | 111x | $103 | +46% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IPGP's PE is in its expensive range at 76x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IPGP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IPGP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
IPGP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +118% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64 | +$5.45 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68 | +$5.20 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73 | +$4.82 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.70 | +$4.16 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.81 | -259% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.52 | -216% |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.09 | -188% |
IPGP has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over IPGP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
IPGP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $287.5M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $278.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $265.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $274.5M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $250.8M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $250.7M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $227.8M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.3M | -22% |
IPGP's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $288M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.2% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.9% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2% | -4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +112 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | -3.7 points |
IPGP has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
IPGP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.8M | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.1M | +$34.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.8M | -$10.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | -78% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.6M | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | -$17.6M | -160% |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.4M | -143% |
| Q4 2024 | $50.6M | -37% |
IPGP has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
IPGP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -72.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +284K shares |
| 3 years | -9.6% | -4.5M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -11M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -11M shares |
IPGP has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $57.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $74.5M |
| Q2 2024 | $122.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $89.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $64M |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IPGP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
IPGP has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
IPGP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.8 | Oversold |
IPGP's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IPGP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IPGP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 76x | 28x | 173% above |
| PE % | 76 | 35 | 41 pts above |
IPGP is trading at 76x earnings, a 173% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has the edge over IPGP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
IPGP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $73.9 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $82.3 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $97.2 | 27% below |
| 100 week MA | $84.6 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $90.9 | 22% below |
IPGP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 22% below its 200-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
IPGP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $143.9 | $221.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $221.0 | $168.9 | -24% |
| 2022 | $168.9 | $92.9 | -45% |
| 2023 | $92.9 | $108.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $108.5 | $73.4 | -32% |
| 2025 | $73.4 | $75.2 | +2.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.2 | $70.9 | -5.7% |
IPGP has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.