ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
FOUR has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FOUR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
FOUR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOUR PE Valuation
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FOUR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FOUR, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
FOUR has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 273% for ASTS versus FOUR up 5%.
FOUR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.29 | +331% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.69 | +5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.64 | +3.1% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.48 | +14% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.36 | +37% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.61 | +360% |
| Q2 2023 | $1.59 | +$1.94 |
| Q1 2023 | $1.30 | +$1.73 |
| Q4 2022 | $0.99 | +$1.91 |
FOUR's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.69 over the past year, up 5% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since early 2022.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FOUR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $966.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $848.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $887M | +26% |
FOUR's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $1.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7% | +5.8 points |
FOUR has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
FOUR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $57M | -39% |
| Q1 2026 | $128M | +186% |
| Q4 2025 | $222.5M | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $272.5M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $93M | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $44.8M | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $143.8M | +97% |
FOUR has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
FOUR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -5.1% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -16% | -14.3M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -9.5M shares |
| 5 years | -7.4% | -6M shares |
FOUR has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $190M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $295M |
| Q4 2025 | $304.8M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $85.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $62.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $110M |
FOUR spent $816M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FOUR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.6x | High |
FOUR's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
FOUR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
FOUR's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOUR PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | FOUR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
FOUR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.8 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.0 | 5.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.5 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $69.7 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $70.3 | 41% below |
FOUR has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 41% below its 200-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
FOUR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.5 | $71.8 | +114% |
| 2021 | $71.8 | $59.2 | -18% |
| 2022 | $59.2 | $54.1 | -8.6% |
| 2023 | $54.1 | $74.3 | +38% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $104.7 | +41% |
| 2025 | $104.7 | $65.2 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $65.2 | $41.5 | -36% |
FOUR has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.