ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
ESTC
Elastic N.V.
ESTC has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ESTC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
ESTC's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ESTC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 24x | $89.06 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $86.56 | -2.8% |
| Current | 25x | $89.06 | — |
| Fair | 163x | $570 | +540% |
| Expensive | 207x | $724 | +713% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ESTC's PE is in its cheap range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ESTC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ESTC, with profitability improving.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
ESTC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.67 | +4.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.50 | +$4.29 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.43 | +$4.47 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.79 | +$0.45 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.02 | -267% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.79 | -230% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.04 | -276% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.24 | -364% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.61 | +$2.59 |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ESTC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $478.1M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $450.7M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $449.9M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $423.5M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $415.3M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $388.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $382.1M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $365.4M | +18% |
ESTC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $478M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.9% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.1% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2% | +6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.2% | +5.7 points |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
ESTC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131.4M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $149.8M | +77% |
| Q1 2026 | $41.8M | -52% |
| Q4 2025 | $26M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $104.2M | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.9M | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $87.3M | +70% |
| Q4 2024 | $37.7M | +$40.9M |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
ESTC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.4% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1.3M shares |
| 3 years | +6.8% | +6.7M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +13.4M shares |
| Available history | +35% | +26.9M shares |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40M |
| Q2 2026 | $40M |
| Q1 2026 | $190.9M |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ESTC Net Leverage
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
ESTC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.6 | Neutral |
ESTC's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ESTC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ESTC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 28x | 8.7% below |
| PE % | 22 | 35 | 13 pts below |
ESTC is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
ESTC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $93.4 | 4.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $83.1 | 7.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $69.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $79.4 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $83.1 | 7.2% above |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
ESTC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $65.0 | $156.0 | +140% |
| 2021 | $156.0 | $124.0 | -21% |
| 2022 | $124.0 | $51.4 | -59% |
| 2023 | $51.4 | $112.7 | +119% |
| 2024 | $112.7 | $101.5 | -9.9% |
| 2025 | $101.5 | $77.0 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $77.0 | $89.1 | +16% |
ESTC has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.