ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
DBX
Dropbox, Inc.
DBX has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
DBX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
DBX's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
DBX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 10x | $33.51 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $27.58 | -18% |
| Fair | 18x | $34.00 | +1.5% |
| Current | 18x | $33.51 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $45.96 | +37% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
DBX's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
DBX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect DBX's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
DBX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.25 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.85 | +5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.83 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86 | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.76 | +2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.63 | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.52 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.40 | +6.9% |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over DBX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
DBX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $637.3M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $631.5M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $629.5M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $636.2M | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $634.4M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $625.7M | -1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $624.7M | -1% |
| Q4 2024 | $643.6M | +1.4% |
DBX's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $637M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 27% | -2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +6.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -28 points |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
DBX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $251.8M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $235.2M | -9% |
| Q1 2026 | $203.3M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $224.9M | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $293.7M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $258.5M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $153.7M | -7.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $210.5M | +11% |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
DBX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -15% | -40M shares |
| 3 years | -35% | -121M shares |
| 5 years | -43% | -173M shares |
| Available history | -45% | -187M shares |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $330.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $366.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $415M |
| Q3 2025 | $389.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $410M |
| Q1 2025 | $499.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $353.3M |
DBX spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 24% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
DBX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
DBX's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
DBX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.7 | Neutral |
DBX's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
DBX PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | DBX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 35% below |
| PE % | 44 | 35 | 9 pts above |
DBX is trading at 18x earnings, a 35% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
DBX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.8 | 3.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.7 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $29.1 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $29.0 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $27.1 | 24% above |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
DBX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.7 | $24.7 | +39% |
| 2021 | $24.7 | $25.0 | +1.3% |
| 2022 | $25.0 | $22.5 | -10% |
| 2023 | $22.5 | $29.5 | +31% |
| 2024 | $29.5 | $30.5 | +3.5% |
| 2025 | $30.5 | $28.0 | -8.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.0 | $33.5 | +20% |
DBX has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.