ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CIEN
Ciena Corporation
CIEN has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CIEN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
CIEN's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CIEN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $94.56 | -68% |
| Forward | 24x | $294 | — |
| Fair | 32x | $142 | -52% |
| Current | 66x | $294 | — |
| Expensive | 133x | $595 | +103% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CIEN's PE is in its expensive range at 66x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CIEN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CIEN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
CIEN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.01 | +168% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.48 | +357% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.00 | +311% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.57 | +185% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85 | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.98 | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.73 | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.55 | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.58 | -66% |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over CIEN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CIEN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -0.5% |
CIEN's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $1.7B last quarter, up 37% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -2.8 points |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
CIEN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.3M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $218.7M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $153.8M | +100% |
| Q4 2025 | $325.6M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $134.6M | +$313.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $128.2M | +208% |
| Q1 2025 | $76.8M | -69% |
| Q4 2024 | $265.8M | +54% |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
CIEN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -347K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | -2.7% | -4M shares |
| 5 years | -6.9% | -10.8M shares |
| Available history | -7.4% | -11.6M shares |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $173M |
| Q2 2026 | $84.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $80.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $84.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $81.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $87M |
| Q1 2025 | $81.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $128.7M |
CIEN spent $422M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CIEN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
CIEN's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.3 years a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
CIEN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.1 | Oversold |
CIEN's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CIEN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CIEN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66x | 28x | 136% above |
| PE % | 70 | 35 | 35 pts above |
CIEN is trading at 66x earnings, a 136% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
CIEN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $338.6 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $368.5 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $375.1 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $238.4 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $144.4 | 104% above |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
CIEN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.7 | $53.3 | +25% |
| 2021 | $53.3 | $76.0 | +43% |
| 2022 | $76.0 | $49.3 | -35% |
| 2023 | $49.3 | $45.0 | -8.8% |
| 2024 | $45.0 | $86.7 | +93% |
| 2025 | $86.7 | $241.7 | +179% |
| 2026 YTD | $241.7 | $294.0 | +22% |
CIEN has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.