ASPN
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
ASPN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over ASPN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ASPN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ASPN's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ASPN PE Valuation
ASPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASPN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASPN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
ASPN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.57 | +$2.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.52 | +$2.28 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.35 | +$2.13 |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.73 | -2882% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.71 | -37200% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.80 | -$3.79 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.48 | -$3.04 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.17 | +$0.83 |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
ASPN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $85.2M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.8M | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $37.9M | -52% |
| Q4 2025 | $41.3M | -66% |
| Q3 2025 | $73M | -38% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $78.7M | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $123.1M | +46% |
ASPN's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $85M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.4% | -3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | -58% | -51 points |
| Q1 2026 | -55% | +325 points |
| Q4 2025 | -170% | -182 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4.6% | -19 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6.6% | -24 points |
| Q1 2025 | -380% | -383 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +10 points |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over ASPN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ASPN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$8.5M | -243% |
| Q2 2026 | -$18M | -$1.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $32.8M | +$40.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $13.7M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.9M | +$6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$16.8M | +$1.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.4M | +$36.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $20.9M | +$51.5M |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
ASPN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +178K shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +670K shares |
| 3 years | +20% | +13.8M shares |
| 5 years | +191% | +54.6M shares |
| Available history | +245% | +59M shares |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ASPN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
ASPN has more cash than debt.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ASPN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.1 | Neutral |
ASPN's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 33 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
ASPN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ASPN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ASPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASPN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.40 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.28 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.53 | 32% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.97 | 0.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.3 | 42% below |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
ASPN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $17.7 | +129% |
| 2021 | $17.7 | $50.8 | +187% |
| 2022 | $50.8 | $11.6 | -77% |
| 2023 | $11.6 | $15.8 | +36% |
| 2024 | $15.8 | $12.5 | -21% |
| 2025 | $12.5 | $2.94 | -76% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.94 | $5.99 | +104% |
ASPN has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.