ASPN
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
ASPN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ASPN overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
ASPN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ASPN's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ASPN PE Valuation
ASPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ASPN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASPN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASPN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.57 | +$2.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.52 | +$2.28 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.35 | +$2.13 |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.73 | -2882% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.71 | -37200% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.80 | -$3.79 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.48 | -$3.04 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.17 | +$0.83 |
ASPN lost $1.57 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over ASPN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASPN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $85.2M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.8M | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $37.9M | -52% |
| Q4 2025 | $41.3M | -66% |
| Q3 2025 | $73M | -38% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $78.7M | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $123.1M | +46% |
ASPN's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $85M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.4% | -3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | -58% | -51 points |
| Q1 2026 | -55% | +325 points |
| Q4 2025 | -170% | -182 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4.6% | -19 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6.6% | -24 points |
| Q1 2025 | -380% | -383 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +10 points |
ASPN's operating margin was −8.4% last quarter, down 3.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ASPN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ASPN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASPN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$8.5M | -243% |
| Q2 2026 | -$18M | -$1.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $32.8M | +$40.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $13.7M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.9M | +$6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$16.8M | +$1.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.4M | +$36.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $20.9M | +$51.5M |
ASPN has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ASPN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +178K shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +670K shares |
| 3 years | +20% | +13.8M shares |
| 5 years | +191% | +54.6M shares |
| Available history | +245% | +59M shares |
ASPN has 83M diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ASPN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ASPN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
ASPN has more cash than debt.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
ASPN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.1 | Neutral |
ASPN's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 33 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ASPN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ASPN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ASPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ASPN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.40 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.28 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.53 | 32% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.97 | 0.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.3 | 42% below |
ASPN has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ASPN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $17.7 | +129% |
| 2021 | $17.7 | $50.8 | +187% |
| 2022 | $50.8 | $11.6 | -77% |
| 2023 | $11.6 | $15.8 | +36% |
| 2024 | $15.8 | $12.5 | -21% |
| 2025 | $12.5 | $2.94 | -76% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.94 | $5.99 | +104% |
ASPN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.