AROW
Arrow Financial Corporation
AROW trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AROW overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AROW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AROW's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AROW.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AROW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.3x | $38.68 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $29.38 | -24% |
| Fair | 13x | $33.92 | -12% |
| Expensive | 15x | $39.77 | +2.8% |
| Current | 15x | $38.68 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AROW has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AROW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AROW, but weaker profitability.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over AROW on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
AROW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.16 | +58% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.64 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.10 | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.09 | +82% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.65 | +50% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.07 | +7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.83 | -1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.70 | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.77 | +1.7% |
AROW earned $2.64 per share over the past year, up 28% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AROW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AROW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | $35M | +7.1% |
| Q1 2024 | $34.3M | -1.3% |
| Q4 2023 | $33.1M | -12% |
| Q3 2023 | $33.4M | -14% |
| Q2 2023 | $32.7M | -11% |
| Q1 2023 | $34.8M | -3.4% |
| Q4 2022 | $37.7M | +8.5% |
| Q3 2022 | $38.7M | +6.6% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 7.1% for AROW versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | 41% | N/A |
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AROW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.8M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.6M | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.9M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.8M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.3M | +77% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.3M | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.8M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.1M | +$21M |
AROW has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AROW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +12% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +13% | +2.1M shares |
| 3 years | +8.3% | +1.4M shares |
| 5 years | +8.2% | +1.4M shares |
| Available history | +9.5% | +1.6M shares |
AROW has 18M diluted shares, up 13% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1M |
| Q2 2026 | $370,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $113,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $154,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $5.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $265,000 |
AROW spent $2M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 84% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over AROW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AROW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | 3.1x | Elevated |
AROW's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AROW.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AROW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 55.0 | Neutral |
AROW's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 55 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AROW PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AROW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 13% above |
| PE % | 77 | 63 | 14 pts above |
AROW has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AROW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.8 | 2.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $38.9 | 0.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $36.4 | 6.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $31.8 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $28.4 | 36% above |
AROW has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AROW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $36.4 | $29.4 | -19% |
| 2021 | $29.4 | $34.2 | +17% |
| 2022 | $34.2 | $34.4 | +0.4% |
| 2023 | $34.4 | $27.9 | -19% |
| 2024 | $27.9 | $28.5 | +2% |
| 2025 | $28.5 | $31.5 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $31.5 | $38.7 | +23% |
AROW has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.